Dollar Shows Signs of a Turn but Additional Weakness Likely

• Euro Corrects Gains
• Japanese Yen Triangle Intact
• British Pound Headed Towards 2.0000?
• Swiss Franc Declining in 5
• Canadian Dollar Rallies Towards Channel
• Australian Dollar Comfortable Above .8000
• New Zealand Dollar .6943 Key

EURUSD – The consolidation that has taken place since the 1.3344 high on 3/16 is most likely a 4th wave correction. This correction should give way to a rally above 1.3344 with a target at 1.3387 (where wave 1 would equal wave 5). This is just above the 1.3370 peak. Channel support is just below current price at about 1.3283. Only a decline below 1.3188 changes the bias to a bearish one. Ideally, 1.3254 holds as support. In summary, we continue to look higher.

USDJPY – As long as 118.04 holds as resistance, the triangle structure remains intact and the next move of consequence should be down towards triangle support near 116.50. Coming under 117.39 would increase confidence in the bearish outlook. A break above 118.04 gives scope to a test of 119.11m which is where the 115.15-118.51 rally would equal the rally from 115.76. Price is at the 20 day SMA, which should offer some resistance. Again, 118.04 is the line in the sand.

GBPUSD – The rally from 1.9213 to 1.9613 is either a 3rd wave advance or a C wave advance. Since the rally is a 161.8% extension of 1.9183-1.9436 / 1.9213, we are favoring the 3rd wave scenario. This means that a correction (likely underway right now) will be a 4th wave and give way to a new high above 1.9654 with focus on 1.9675. This morning’s low at 1.9556 is just above the 23.6% of 1.9213-1.9654 at 1.9551. We are looking for this low to hold. If it fails, then potential support is not until the 38.2% at 1.9486.

USDCHF – The USDCHF pattern is clearing up a bit. A rally above 1.2163 would make 5 waves up from 1.2030 and turn the larger trend higher. Divergence with daily oscillators at the recent low also favor a turn higher. Short term support is at 1.2109 and 1.2030 needs to hold for a bullish outcome to remain favored.

USDCAD – The USDCAD is likely to make another low below 1.1598 before a more pronounced rally. The way in which that rally unfolds will determine whether or not we remain bullish or turn bearish. This big decline could be a C wave of a correction (favored view) but 1.1564 must hold. If 1.1564 is broken, then focus shifts to channel support at 1.1462 (support increases about 2 pips per day).

AUDUSD – We remarked yesterday that “the AUDUSD may be in the verge of breaking above long term resistance at .8003. Near term, the rally from .7798 is in 5 waves and 240 minute RSI is overbought and exhibits bearish divergence. A corrective setback may be in order before a serious challenge of .8003 occurs. The uptrend remains healthy as long as the 3/13 high at .7887 remains intact.” After slipping to .7963, the AUDUSD has rallied back above the .8000 figure and focus is on .8130 (see

NZDUSD – The Kiwi is strong and may be in a 3rd wave (or C wave) rally that began at .6943. In this case, we look for the NZDUSD to at least challenge .7116 (.6943 + (.7007 - .6833)) before a setback takes place. Remaining above .6943 is key for the near term bullish case.