Euro holds below 61.8% fib off 1.3740-1.3115 move. Dollar/Yen finally breaks above key 100.00 psychological barriers. Cable extends gains to eye retest of key 1.4990 highs. Dollar/Swiss attempting to carve out fresh higher low above 1.1165. Dollar/Cad setbacks limited to rising channel support. Australian Dollar seen testing yearly highs into early week. New Zealand Dollar see sharp pullback from daily highs; direction still unclear.
[B]
EUR/USD
[/B] EUR/USD – The market has finally broken out from the latest sideways trade, surging above the recent consolidation highs at 1.3345 to 1.3515 thus far. The 61.8% fib retracement off of the 1.3740-1.3115 move comes in by 1.3500 and we would expect to see some pullback from here with the market still caught in some broader directionless trade. Next key level to watch above comes in at 1.3595 (27Mar high), while a break back below 1.3365 would be required to take the short-term pressure off of the topside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.3650
R3
3/25 high
1.3595
R2
3/27 high
1.3515
R1
4/2 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.3365
S1
4/3 high
1.3220
S2
4/2 low
1.3115
S3
3/30 low
[B]USD/JPY
[/B] USD/JPY – We continue to favor additional upside over the coming sessions with the market having finally taken out psychological barriers at 100.00, to expose the major 87.15 double bottom objective by 104.00. Only a close back under 98.20 delays. Thursday’s close above the 200-Day SMA (first time since September 2008) reaffirms bullish outlook. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
101.50
R3
10/9 high
101.00
R2
Figure
100.60
R1
11/4 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
99.35
S1
4/3 low
98.40
S2
4/2 low
98.20
S3
4/1 low
[B]GBP/USD
[/B] GBP/USD – Although recent price action would suggest that we could be in the process of carving out a material base, we are not convinced just yet and still see the market locked in a more significant bear trend. A break and close back above 1.4990 (9Feb high) would be required to shift us into the bullish camp and until then, we continue to look for opportunities to sell into rallies in anticipation of a resumption of setbacks. We will wait for daily reading to cross into overbought before considering fresh shorts. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.5000
R3
Psychological
1.4990
R2
2/9 high
1.4900
R1
Figure
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.4650
S1
4/3 low
1.4565
S2
100-Day SMA
1.4450
S3
4/2 low
[B]USD/CHF
[/B] USD/CHF –* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:“Times New Roman”; mso-fareast-font-family:“Times New Roman”;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> Setbacks have found support for now as expected in the low 1.1300’s which acts as previous range resistance turned support. From here we see risks for a resumption of gains back above 1.1500 and through the recent trend highs at 1.1550. A confluence of moving averages in the 1.1500’s initially capped rallies but the next attempt to the topside should easily exceed the SMAs. Only back under 1.1165 negates outlook and gives reason for pause. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.1550
R3
3/30 high
1.1490
R2
4/2 high
1.1390
R1
4/3 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.1300
S1
Figure
1.1245
S2
200-Day SMA
1.1165
S3
3/19 range lows
[B]USD/CAD
[/B] USD/CAD –The market has been trading within a bull channel over the past several weeks with the latest dips supported ahead of channel support at 1.2190. Look for a medium-term higher low to carve out by 1.2190 ahead of a fresh upside extension back towards and through the key 2009 highs by 1.3065 from 9Mar. We expect any additional weakness to continue to be supported by the rising trend-line which currently resides by 1.2200. Back above 1.2455 should act as a catalyst for a resumption of the broader up-move. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.2655
R3
3/31 high
1.2575
R2
20-Day SMA
1.2455
R1
4/3 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.2300
S1
78.6% minor fib
1.2265
S2
3/27 low
1.2190
S3
3/19 high
[B]AUD/USD
[/B] AUD/USD – Recent price action changes the picture a bit with the prospect of a major double bottom coming back into play. The neckline comes in by the 2009 highs at 0.7270 (7Jan high) with a break above to accelerate and potentially expose a measured move double bottom objective back above 0.8000. However, calling for a major bottom is still pre-mature and we are just as likely to see a test of the 0.7270 highs and subsequent failure back into the prominent range that has defined trade for the past several months. At a very minimum though, we would expect to see a test of 0.7270 over the coming sessions. We may look to sell a failure in this area with daily studies still looking overbought. Stay tuned. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.7360
R3
10/7 high
0.7270
R2
1/7 09 high
0.7230
R1
4/3 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.7060
S1
4/3 low
0.6975
S2
4/2 low
0.6855
S3
4/1 low
[B]NZD/USD
[/B] NZD/USD – The weekly highs coincide with the 78.6% fib retracement off of the 0.6085-0.4895 (Dec-Mar) move and this is the last chance for a reversal before the likelihood of a full 100% retracement to 0.6085. Back above 0.5900 should open a direct retest of the 2009 highs which come in at 0.6035, while failure to do so will put the focus back on the downside. A break below Friday’s 0.5770 would confirm topside failure. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.6085
R3
12/18 high
0.6035
R2
1/7 09 high
0.5900
R1
1/12 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.5770
S1
4/3 low
0.5735
S2
3/31 high
0.5635
S3
4/2 low
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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