The USDJPY traded below 100 for the first time since October 1995. The short term pattern suggests that a rally to at least the 102.50 area is probable near term. The EURUSD pattern suggests that price is very close to a major top.
All of the objectives that we have mentioned recently have been exceeded, including where wave 5 would equal wave 1 within the 5 wave advance from 1.4438. We are concentrating on the rally from 1.5282 today; which we are treating as wave 5 of 5. The rally looks very close to complete. In fact, a push through 1.5625 would possibly complete an ending diagonal from 1.5521. Coming under 1.5535 suggests that a top is in place.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
The USDJPY broke traded below 100 today for the first time since October 1995. More importantly, the pair broke below waves b and d of the long term triangle. This supports our long term call for price to drop below the 1995 low of 81.12. However, we do expect a rally near term. There are 9 waves down from 103.58 (which we are treating as the end of wave 4 on the chart above). Therefore, expect a rally to at least 101.69 and possible higher near term.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
We have concentrated recently on the fact that “the rally from 1.9361 is wave C within the A-B-C advance from 1.9337. Wave C should divide into 5 waves and so far there are only 3 waves up. As such, we expect additional gains. The next likely resistance point is the 61.8% at 2.0463.” If the count above is correct, then wave 1 of C is 585 pips (truncated), and wave 3 is 501 pips. Wave 3 can not be the shortest wave, therefore wave 5 must be no longer than 501 pips. A 500 pip rally from the wave 4 low (1.9995) places the end of wave 5 at 2.0495; very close to the 61.8% of 2.1160-1.9337 at 2.0463. Today’s high is at 2.0389. We are on the lookout for a short opportunity. Be sure to check FXCMTR for ideas.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
We wrote yesterday that “price would come under 1.0134 in a 5th wave to complete the decline from 1.1105. A larger upward correction would then take place.” The drop today to 1.0046 satisfies minimum expectations for wave 5. Very short term (5 min chart), 5 wave up from 1.0046 are visible. Look for long opportunities against 1.0046
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.0046, target TBD
The USDCAD has hardly budged. If a 3rd of a 3rd wave was underway from .9981, then the USDCAD should have accelerated lower by now. Since it has not, we expect .9981 to be exceeded and for larger wave 2 not to end until the 61.8% at 1.0011 or the 78.6% at 1.0093. Still, a longer term bearish bias is warranted against 1.0197.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.0197, target TBD
We maintain that wave 5 within the 5 wave bull cycle from .8512 is underway towards a new high (above .9496). Near term, expect price to remain above .9327. If .9327 gives way though, look for support near .9285.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9147, target .9800
[B]Since the top in July at .8108, we contend that the NZDUSD is tracing out a large expanded flat. Wave B of the flat could test .8504 (127% of A) or .7634/69 (100% extension of a within B and 138.2% of A). The rally from .7874 is an impulse, which warrants a bullish bias. Near term, the entire rally from .7383 may be taking the form of an ending diagonal (overlapping and each leg consisting of 3 legs). [/B]
[B][/B]
[B]STRATEGY: Bullish, against .7874, target .8480[/B]
[B]
Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at <[email protected]>[/B]
[B] [1] STRATEGY is a quick summary of our best technical ideas. The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more. Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
[/B]