Donchian Channel Trading

I think the reasoning for the use of ATR (which was introduced by traders after some years of using Donchian Channels) was to smooth out the variation in position sizes. This would make sense when you consider this strategy was developed for commodity futures and currencies which have prices that can cycle up and down for many years or decades without much of a dramatic major trend up or down like equities (which always have a very long upward trend). The trader using ATR to calculate position sizes trading EUR/USD would be using very similar position sizes year after year after year (over the last decade EUR/USD has largely traded less than 7% away from 1.3000).

Suppose, for example that you got a long entry signal in EUR/USD at 1.1100. At the time, the price range of the channel you are trading is 500 pips. Suppose you have a $5000 account and want to risk $50 (1% of equity) on the trade so you put on 1000 units (1000 units fixes a risk of .10 per pip and .10*500=$50).

Suppose you are filled long at 1.1100 but the price goes only to 1.1105 and then turns back south and stops you out. This quick whipsaw gives a full loss of $50. The price then continues south another 200 pips below your stop loss level and then bounces back up.

At that point, you would place your new long entry order just over 1.1105, but now the price range is 700 pips tall and you want to risk 1% of your new balance which is $4950. To risk $49.50 on this new 700 pip range you put on 707 units (707 units fixes risk of .0707 per pip and .0707*700=$49.49). Now you are entering at almost the same level with a 30% smaller position size.

So then suppose this second entry goes on to a profit. Now you have profited 30% less on an entry just 5 pips above your initial entry at 1.1100 simply because of that whipsaw.

An initial stop based on ATR will smooth that out, the size of the second trade would have been much more similar to the size of the first. The position size on the first would have been a bit smaller and the position size on the second may have been a bit bigger. So the use of an ATR stop is not only good to keep you from dropping your position size way down in a situation like that above, but also it is good to prevent you from putting on a position size that is too big when a price range gets really narrow. In fact, I have mentioned this many times, Jerry Parker uses a minimum ATR to prevent positions from going too big. The purpose of that is to protect the trader against slippage.

ATR stops will allow position sizes to vary but not to as great a degree as pure Donchian Channel stops. Generally traders who use Donchian Channels and ATR set their initial stop loss based on ATR. Then, once the channel stop becomes profitable, they use the channel stop to get out with a profit. Others use ATR for position size calculation and the Donchian Channel stop for an exit whether it is profitable or not.

To put this particular subject into perspective, it should not go unnoticed that the impact of these nuances is lessened considerably by system diversification (and also by market diversification). Suppose under the circumstances as outlined above you risked only 0.333% on each trade and simultaneously ran three systems on EUR/USD. The position that endured the whipsaw above would have been only a third the size and a second position using a longer channel would have had an even smaller size with a wider stop and a third position using an even longer channel would have had an even smaller size with an even wider stop. Suppose then that only the first system endured the whipsaw while the other two went on to profits. This would severely dampen the effect of the variation of position size caused by the use of pure Donchian Channel stops. In fact, it would dampen that effect more so than the use of an ATR stop. As far as I understand there are many successful trend following traders that use initial stops and position sizes based on ATR and use system diversification.

As for me, for now, I am going to focus more on system diversification and run pure Donchian Channel stops.

-Adrian

So my short answer is: system diversification.

Thanks for making that crystal clear Adrian. I have another question. One of my trades hit SL (it was a buy) I immediately opened a sell. It is now 200 pips in the green, but the longer term trend (monthly and weekly) shows it is in an upwards move. What am I to do in this kind of scenario. It was very amateurish of me to open a trade that is going against the trend.
In future shall I place another pending order in the direction of the trend once it hits SL.
Do you only use 200 mdma to establish the long term trend?

So if I understand what happened, you:

  1. had a break of a channel to the upside and went long
  2. had a break of the same channel to the downside and got out of the long position with a loss
  3. got short with that break to the downside.

Depending on the length of your channel (how long is it?) you may want to filter your trades toward one direction so as to avoid over-trading. I trade channels of lengths like 4 and 10 weeks only in the direction away from the 200 day moving average. That way, I don’t go short when the price is above the MDMA or long when the price is below.

Another way to filter trades could be to trade only in the direction of positive swap/rollover. For example, I only take shorts in USD/CNH because the rollover costs to go long are heavy enough to turn even a profitable long trade into a loser. Scalpers don’t think about rollover because they don’t hold positions for weeks at a time. Trend followers who hold positions over months or even years must also consider rollover.

-Adrian

Hi Adrian… Yes, that is exactly what happened. It is a gbp/cad trade. 2 wk (10 day) channel. Since it is such a short timespan channel, shall I ride it out?

I finished reading "trend trading"by M.Covel.
Currently busy with Andreas F Clenow’s “following the trend”

Do you recommend any other book?

Thanks

Did you read any Van Tharp books?

-Adrian

Mark Douglas’ Trading in the Zone would go very well with Andreas Clenow’s Following the Trend.

I came across a forum where a trader explains his strategy and uses ig markets as his broker. Seems like they have a nice wide variety of tradeables. But for the life of me I cannot find any account minimums etc.

Have you guys looked at applying this strategy to more than just forex?

Donchian Channels are just one of many possible technical tools that can be used to implement diversified trend following. They were first used in commodity futures, then they were used in other markets. Chesapeake Capital, managed by Jerry Parker, uses these techniques in stocks, currencies, commodities, and interest rates with a 25% allocation for each class. So fx is just one area wherein they are used. In fact, to be true to the philosophy of trend following, it should be done across asset classes. But there are many caveats as you go to apply it to various classes and markets.

Some of the traders in this very thread who are not in the U.S. use these techniques in CFDs offered through their FX dealer. With that, they can trade stock and commodity indexes. This option is not available to U.S. traders as CFDs are banned here. But a great many traders in the U.S. use Donchian Channels to follow trends in the futures markets which of course cover virtually everything out there including stock indexes, bonds, commodities, and plenty more. There are guys also using these techniques with ETFs as well.

The short answer is YES.

-Adrian

Sorry, I should have worded it better. It is applied to many asset classes - Not just forex, have you thought about going with a broker that offers more than forex and applying it on more assets?
It has been 25 trading days that I have been trading this way and I am still in the red.

I know it is long term and that a trader will suffer through long periods of drawdown - It is just very very painful to see your account perform well and when you look a few days later to see those profits diminish and become big losses. For the greater good.
I check your myfxbook everyday Adrian, and saw you had a good week.

Yes, the answer is yes. I have accounts with a few brokers that do not offer fx. I trade ETFs using longer terms than in FX because the costs are higher. I ultimately want to have a large futures portfolio. If I was not in the U.S., I would go right into CFDs.

And on my 4 week channel system: I am actually bummed those trades closed but I have to book the winnings sometime right? I would have preferred to see those trends go on. But yes, that system is now in the green. It helps a lot to have the ability to put on a position size that is super damn close to exact. I love dialing in the position size to within a penny or two of the risk I want to put on. But even though I am up for the year, I also realize I could have a drawdown back into negative territory later.

-Adrian

How do go about stopped out trades? Shall I reinstate them after a day or so?

If you are trading Donchian Channels and you get stopped out. You do not get back in until you get another break of the channel in the direction you are trading.

-Adrian

i heard that some trade the DCs as a “always in the market” system…a stop out means a direct entry in the opposite direction…
this way you will never miss a trend, but you always give back a good portion of your profits (whipsaws) being always in the market…
it’s up to everybody to decide what one prefers…

Yes totally. And I think that is the original way Donchian traded. If I understand correctly, he only later added the moving average filter.

-Adrian

Another question…
I trade the DCT method. I establish the trend with 200ma…Let’s say that a currency has a bullish bias and I only place a pending order to go long and along comes a major event (like the snb or the financial crisis in 2008) and there is a huge spike downward. This is then missed.
Would it be amateurish of me to think we should place another p/o on the opposing side, say 50 pips away and keep an eye on it that it doesn’t get triggered with normal market movement?
Your thoughts?

Do you mean stop order to go short? If so, if I am following a trend above the 200 day MA, I will not go short until there is price action below the 200 day MA. On weekly data, if the week low falls below the 200 day moving average I will put a stop order in to go short the next pip below that low.

So taking your example, suppose some crazy even goes down wherein the price moves 600 pips below the 200 day MA all in just minutes. I won’t have an order sitting there because the most recent data was above the 200 day moving average. I would put my stop order to go short below the low of the crazy downward day and if that is not filled I would simply chill.

-Adrian

Seems like the Donchian method is used by high profile professionals. I have heard of big institutions using it too.

Hey guys,

I’m looking at getting back into DC breakouts, using robots and manual trading. I have a few ideas I would like to discuss with you guys. But first…

How is everything going?

steve :slight_smile:

Some good moves in NZD/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD, USD/CAD, GBP/JPY and a few others against the Kiwi and Aussie brought my 4 week system equity up a bit (to 35% up since I started running this system in April) in the first week of this month. But things have been choppy with no new breakouts in that system since. With that, I have 19 open trades in the 4 week system and only one of them has a stop loss that is profitable and the open equity in that account is -5.45%.

I also have 7 week, 10 week, and 20 week channel systems up and running in different accounts now and I quit running the ten day so I don’t have to do daily updates. If I end up running a daily system again I would prefer to have it totally automated.

-Adrian

Thanks Adrian,

Looks like you are going with longer term strategies. It is a shame to loose Bob from the thread, but can understand it is important to stick with what works for you. Reason I am getting back into Donchian is because I’m happy with my intraday discretionary trading so am now looking to compliment it with longer term methods.

I did notice the big move in the NZDUSD, the others I don’t watch quite as often.

How is Mike going with intraday DC Breakout trading?