Hopefully we can get some live trades to post here. If I enter any from dochian I will post.
Happy pips.
I just took this off the weekly chart. Plz give me opinions if it proper trade. Not new to trading, just dochian. 10 WK channel and 40 WK MA
I have a pending or to go long AUD/NZD @1.07942 off WK with 20 WK dochian and 40 WK EA. I was going to take at the break of 10 WK channel but decided to go long at 20 WK because there should be less noise as they say.
no, thread will not dieâŚwith DCs patience is requiered 
Different use of the Donchian ChannelâŚ55/20.
The 55 can be changed if desired between 50 and 60 depending on the pair.
It works for me.
The turtle setup was with DCs of 55, 20 and 10âŚ
Which TFs do you use?
Hi Mike,
I use it mainly on the Daily and have been testing on other lower TF to the M30.
When on the M30, I still get great runs of 40 pips on a break of the 55
But I can get great runs of 100+ pips âifâ I take the trade with a âconquerorâ trigger when it breaks the 20 channel to initiate the trade.
Thats a little vague. Was it to early to enter when it broke channel and MA?
Thanks, John
hi john
no, i just refered to your sentence that the thread is deadâŚi think your entry was goodâŚas i already said before, i just move the entry orders along the channel, and when there is a breakout then iâm in the trade, after that itâs just trailing the stop along the other side of the channel (or as i do, along a smaller channel)âŚi only get in on breakouts and normally never manuallyâŚbut i also trade smaller TFsâŚ
mike
i tested the M15 charts too, but you have to have a lot of time to follow the trade, thatâs quite time consumingâŚ
i have 2 open trades at the momentâŚ
AUDCAD long (-22 pips) and CHFJPY long (+55 pips)âŚon H1 TFâŚdonât have time to look every hour to move SL, so letâs see how they work outâŚ
todayâs trades so farâŚentries on M15 and M30âŚ
Long gbp/cad @1.89455 of daily TF
would have taken that one tooâŚ
Gâday lads. Well been following this from the begining yet no mention of the most famous donchian channel traders of all time (apart from old m8 AoA) the turtles. So I have made a little package for all those getting into it.
Now it has probably become the accepted fact that the turtles method no longer holds any validity in todayâs market. I say what a load. Those who know me know how I love to trade the tick charts but man that style of trading leaves you with a serious headache. What most donât know is I also run my own version of the turtle traders on the 4hr chart and love this indicator. Hopefully I can demonstrate validity for this methodology but for the rest of this post Iâll focus on the turtles.
So first the attached zip package. First and foremost is a PDF file with the complete turtles trading rules. Read it learn it live it. If you donât have a trading plan documented to at least this level then youâll need one. Regardless of your trading style it is an excellent template for developing your own.
Also in the zip file is a gift. It is an EA (with source code) based on the turtles method in the PDF. Let me painstakingly point out but, Iâm no programmer. But I have learnt. I think you need to but thatâs a point for later discussion. However to run the EA you need to install the donchian channel indicator I have also included. As old m8 has pointed out, donchian channels are not a standard indicator. And finally a word of warning. Expert advisors are exactly that, an advisor. They are not fully automated trading systems. They are there to assist you the trader. The key to using EAâs is to simply know when to switch them off. Weâll talk about that a bit latter as well.
Finally a few back test results from the EURUSD pair. Now quoting directly from the PDF, pg 33
There is no substitute for statistically valid historical research when developing MECHANICAL TRADING SYSTEMS. In practice, this means learning how to program a computer to run simulations of trading system performance.
I go to great lengths to ensure my modelling quality is 99.9% thus ensuring the historical validity of my test results. My data is source from dukascopy. It then has to be converted to a format capable to be read by MT4. Tick by tick by tick. The data volume is huge. 10 years of data for the daily chart occupies 8G on my hard drive. Multiply that by 9 for each time frame. My testing is isolated in a separate partition on my computer (which is purpose built for trading) to prevent contamination.
Lets talk turtles. They ran two systems. A shorter-term set based on 20-day breakouts, and a simpler long term system based on a 55-day breakout. Lets look at that one first.
The following graph is a 10 year backtest on the EURUSD. Starting balance $10 000.
Interesting graph. And one that probably represents the power of this system and why above all else, have faith in your system and never break the rules. The turtles knew their system was tried and tested to weather any storm. This system is a trend trading system dependent on capturing infrequent large trends. It could be months, a year, even two between these trends. As a result their accounts could suffer from large draw downs. The ones who succeeded played by the rules. Those who fail questioned the rules.
Over the ten years for 1 pair a return of 118%. Now the facts are this is strong return for a singular pair. 232 trades with average lot size only 0.15. So approx 34 lots were traded. At 7% commission only approx $240 is lost in costs. Compared to the cost to trade the ticks, thatâs minimal. The other cost to consider is swap. Swap over long term trades is hard to factor in. But again this small average lot size means swap will be measured in cents not dollars so keeping that to a bare minimum.
Next graph is of the 20 day breakout.
The 20 day breakout yields significantly more yield. 336%. Over 20% a year. If a trader did nothing else but trade this one pair for the past 10 years they would of out-preformed many many fund managers. And after all isnât that why we trade. When analyzing these results one rule comes to mind. One I cannot program into an EA. When trading the 20 day breakout, the turtles never took the next entry signal after a wining trade. They where to ignore it. This was regardless of whether the trade was taken or not. The turtles had rules about exposure that can be found in the PDF on pg 16. This limited exposure often meant that trade signals where not taken because it would have left them over-exposed to the market. To program this into an EA would mean programming virtual trades. In the hands of a skilled programmer piece of pie. For me - not going to happen.
However overcoming it is easy and is what I was talking about earlier. After a winning trade, turn the EA off. Open up your demo account and apply the EA there. Wait for a losing trade set to come through the system then go back live. Simple.
The turtles also had a secondary stop methodology called the whip saw pg23. This strategy has even higher yields but was much harder to execute. I used the stop strategy on my 4hr chart. Your win/loss ratio is terrible but then again thats just a figure.
Ok so the final back test. After the turtle experiment ended, many went on and refined the system as we are today. So for the final test I passed the EA through on the 1hr chart. I used a breakout period of 100 and trailing stop period of 6. Finally reduced the risk by 80% to counteract the increased number of trades taken. This test however was only run over the past 5 years not ten as the previous two. And here are the results.
164% return in 5 years, 30%+ a year. Who wouldnât be happy with that especially on a singular pair.
So thatâs a bit for now. Follow the rules to a tee, and trading donchian channels turtle style will be one of the most profitable systems you will ever come across. Do your own research and testing and it can be the foundations and cornerstone to your own methodology. Enjoy
Bob.
P.S. Any programmers want to dissect my skills feel free. The best advice comes from those who give it for free.
Turtle trader.zip (996 KB)
P.P.S. Turns out the PDF file is to large to download. But if you follow this link you can download it from here Original Turtle Trader - Forex Trading Software - Turtle Story . The site has updated since I was last there and so to the PDF. So the pg references I have given might be different. Apologies
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Great post. Hopefully more will find this and provide valuable info.
If I remember from the book I read about them if the trade before was a winner the had choice to trade it when it made 55 day high/low. I think ,correct me if im wrong. that would be impossible to put into a EA I think.
Thanks bob,
great contribution!
People saying that trend trading (as DCs, etcâŚ) doesnât work nowadays have no clueâŚas long as price moves you have a trend, as tiny as it might be, but there will be a trend (even if you have to go down to 1min charts)âŚand when price stops moving at all then there is no market anymore and also no tradingâŚ
As long as markets exist, also trend trading exists and is validâŚ
Mike
As far as i know they always traded the 55 signals, no matter if the last trade was a winner or loserâŚthey only had to respect the risk management rulesâŚ
Mike