I have noticed down or up trends can sometimes last for 2 or 3 days before a pull back. To see where the pull back is likely to reach would it be best to draw the Fib over the whole down/up trend or just the last day of it?
The whole trend. Draw from the obvious start of the trend to where it began to retrace. I’m sure someone has a strategy for only drawing on 1 day candle, but I’ve never done that. Unfortunately I am on my phone and can’t post a picture. What pair are you looking at currently?
Keep in mind I am a longer term trader I keep my trades open from a couple days to several weeks.
This would be for daily trades. The chart below shows how I would normally draw fibs over a daily candle but here I would have got stopped out below the 38.2 level.
Instead, if I had placed the fib over the whole 2 day period the price would have retraced perfectly back to my 61.8 entry and then onto full profit at 161.8.
Therefore, I am noticing that where there are atleast 2 or 3 daily candles going in the same direction with no pull back in between days I may be better drawing Fibs over the whole trend rather than just the last day.
This next chart shows how drawing over a single daily candle worked best. The prior down trend had been broken by an indecision candle before hand.
Richhand, I do not know your strategy and seems you are following the price with the Fibos, that is a mistake if you want to use Fibos to trade the trend.
The most commonly way to draw Fibonacci retracements/extensions is from swing point to swing point. When you can pinpoint swings highs and lows, that means the market is trending and Fibos are more useful.
Yunny1, although I take the direction of the trend into account, this stratergy is to use the Fibs to gain the retracement of price following a daily candle, not specifically between swing points. This generally works very nicely having chosen the right candles. I am just wondering if anyone else has found that it is best to tie 2 candles togther when price has moved strongly from one day to the next. I am back testing but not certain of this yet.
Of course I also use fibs over trends between swing points but this is a seperate stratergy.
Drawing fibs over a single H4 candle or over a trend on a H1 chart can set up 2 very different retracement areas. I will start another thread with clearer pictures to show the problem.