Sure. I track the 28 significant pairs from the 8 major currencies. For this particular demo I’m avoiding anything with AUD or NZD in the pair as they require a lot of margin, and I want to keep some free margin for later if I decide to increase the size of the positions and so I can use the same account to be doing other things.
The 15 pairs being test traded are -
CAD/CHF
CAD/JPY
CHF/JPY
EUR/CAD
EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
EUR/USD
GBP/CAD
GBP/CHF
GBP/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CAD
USD/CHF
USD/JPY
MA slope flat - if an MA to the most recent daily close shows as a flat line I look back 1 day at a time to the last point the MA showed a slope and take that, upwards or downwards, as the current slope
Monday 31/08 - Monday is a Public Holiday here in the UK so I won’t be running this strategy on Monday. But I will be running it through other countries’ public holidays, just not the UK’s.
JPY pairs - Friday 28/08 showed much volatility in the JPY pairs as the Japanese PM announced his resignation. I closed all the JPY positions before UK lunch-time yesterday. 4 of the 5 JPY pairs I had demo positions on for this strategy closed counter-trend: the one that closed with-trend was USD/JPY, which was also the biggest faller on the day, so would potentially have been a big winner for this strategy if I had held on. The question what to do on Tuesday might be answered by Monday’s TA, but all the JPY pairs right now continue to show buy or sell same as before the announcement, so if I was trading Monday, the system rules still say to take the same direction positions on all these.
Total gain is simply the gain since the start of the test. I started with £10,000 and am now at £10,180. I am not withdrawing or depositing any funds during the test.
Some would say a gain of 1.8% in 6 days is not very good, but that would be a mistake.
Thank you, Tommor. I didn’t note how much I started with and hence cannot calculate %gain. But I collected 442 pips in last 4 days of Aug 2020. Please see my test results below. I checked the following pairs only.
I used another filter - Stochastic. If 20 & 50 ema trend is supported by Stochastic trend then only I selected that pair. Maybe, this week it is good. It is very early days. Let us do more testing. It seems it has potential.
Good selection of filter I would say @supshin. It might well be that this strategy can be optimised with a suitable filter like stochastic or an additional rule for MA trend confirmation etc. I wanted to test the naked strategy first to find out if it is reliable enough for further work. So fa so good.
I think if you used the London am 4H period you could get good results but I don’t see it being obviously a winner to get more than 1 x 4H period per day.
Cheers. I estimate that trending days make up about 55% of the total within a trending market. In this context “trending” is derived from the slopes of the 20 and 50EMA’s being in the same direction.
This is a test to prove the basic tradeability of taking advantage of this (if correct). An obvious enhancement after an initial trial would be to add a further filter such as a momentum indicator etc.
Hey bud. I like your approach. Have you considered using a 1:1 risk:reward ratio? It’s a coin flip if you’re trading randomly, but adding your trend analysis may tilt the coin flip in your favour. You get the added benefit of a stop loss & profit target in case you get disconnected for the whole day. Maybe set an SL and TP of 0.5 ATR(5), with an additional time-based exit at the London close? Just a few thoughts.
There’s an Ea already made with this strategy, watch on yt by expert4x. Or you actually following his concept? The results is great, i’ve been doing it on demo for last 5-6 months, with stoch as a filter. So far so good on trending market, only when big news coming i need to put a stop loss and expect the price to hit it.
I’m still monitoring this strategy and using it in a demo account. But right now its been hit by a 25% drawdown. Rationally this will work itself out long-term but just using such simple entry parameters without filter criteria and with no stops is bound to lead to this kind of experience.
I’m hoping things will normalise and this line will end the year in profit.
