DXY – Bearish day. Exactly what we were looking for. The dollar retraced up to the NYMO and then shot lower and absorbed all of the liquidity below 92.00. Price paused momentarily at the H1 FVG but then continued lower.
EURUSD – Bullish day. Also exactly as forecast. However, the retrace to the NYMO did not yield a high probability entry on the M15 … so no trade today. Missed about 60 pips on this move, but rules are rules for a reason. There will ALWAYS be another trade as long as you still have funds. Price retraced to the NYMO and a bit lower, then shot up to the liquidity above 1.1925 and continued up to the 2-month prior low at 1.1952.
GBPUSD – Flat day. Price essentially moved sideways, allowing the EURUSD to move higher. Price did retrace down to the NYMO and much lower, actually down to the Hourly OB at 1.3709. On the M15, there was a low probability entry just above the NYMO. But again … low probability meaning it did match my trading rules. Had I taken this trade, I would have been stopped out.
Key Levels
Bearish – 2-Day Prior Low 92.01 … next Weekly Open 92.21
Bullish – NYMO 91.76 … next OB 91.89
Daily … Will be looking for the Dollar to move higher today and reach for the 2-Day Prior Low at 92.01 which is also a Mitigation Block. Price is near it now, but will be looking for support around the NYMO at 91.76 prior to the move higher.
Key Levels
Bearish –FVG High 1.2043
Bullish – 2-Day Prior High 1.1956 … next Rebalance Area 1.1836 (Weekly)
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.1958 … next OB 1.2032
Bullish – 2-Day Prior High 1.1956 … Next Weekly Open 1.1900
Daily … Looking for the EURUSD to drop down to at least Monday’s high at 1.1956 and possibly the Weekly Open at 1.1900. Price is currently sitting at the NYMO area, which is where I will look to price to continue moving down.
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG High 1.3807 (already hit today) … next RB 1.3901 (Daily)
Bullish – NYMO 1.3768 … next Weekly Open 1.3706
Daily … Price filled the Hourly and Daily FVG’s in early trading and is now moving lower. Not expecting a big move on the GBPUSD today due to the EURGBP chart. Will either move sideways from this point or could drop a bit, possible to the Weekly open at 1.3706.
DXY – Bearish day. The dollar was down on the day, contrary to my forecast. The NYMO could not support price as it hovered around that area for a few hours, before finally giving out. Price then moved down to the 2-Month Prior High at 91.60, where it has found support.
EURUSD – Bullish day. On the EURUSD, the NYMO DID support price yesterday and eventually led it to a higher move. I did take a trade in this pair yesterday. Went short at 1.1965 and price moved sideways, then dropped to 1x before moving higher and taking my SL. I did not follow my trading rules! If price does not move in my direction, I am supposed to close the position. But I “felt” like price was going to drop and … well … the result was a loss. FOLLOW YOUR RULES!
GBPUSD – Bullish day. Price moved back up into the FVG and then consolidated for the rest of the day. I expected a flat day and essentially, that is what we got.
Today’s forecast is out a bit early. I prefer to wait until much closer to the NY session. But here you go.
DXY D1
Liquidity
Above 91.50
Below 91.40
Key Levels
Bearish –FVG High 92.01 (also MB)
Bullish –2-Month Prior High 91.60 (Already hit)
Bias – Bearish to flat
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 91.76 … next OB 92.01
Bullish – 2-Month Prior High 91.60 (Already hit) … next OB 91.20
Daily … The 2-Month Prior High has acted as nice support for the last two days. Can that continue today? Not looking for a large move today. Price could stay rangebound between the NYMO at 91.76 and the 2-Day Prior High at 91.60 … leaving movement in the EURUSD and GBPUSD up to the EURGBP, which is moving higher today.
Key Levels
Bearish –FVG High 1.2043
Bullish – FVG Low 1.1919 … next Rebalance Area 1.1836 (Weekly)
Bias – Bullish to flat
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – next OB 1.2032
Bullish – NYMO 1.1957 … next OB 1.1904
Daily … Looks like the low of the day was made during the Asian session. We could see price take out yesterdays high and head up into the Daily FVG above 1.1990. There has already been a retrace down to the NYMO at 1.1957, but there could be another … although it would not be as reliable.
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.3758 next … FVG High 1.3807 (already hit today)
Bullish – RB 1.3687 (Daily)
Daily … Looking for price to continue to the downside today. We have already had a strong move away from the NYMO in early trading. Will be looking for a retrace back up to this level around 1.3758 and then the push lower. The Daily Rejection Block at 1.3687 would make a nice low for the day … but … price could extend below 1.3670 and take both this week’s and last week’s lows, where the liquidity is currently residing.
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 91.54
Bullish – NYMO 91.21
Daily … Looking for price to move higher today, at least up to the Hourly OB at 91.54 or Weekly Open price at 91.60. From there we could see a continuation back to the downside. For the move up today, I’ll be looking for a retrace back towards the NYMO at 91.21.
Key Levels
Bearish – MB 1.2022 … next NYMO 1.2031
Bullish – OB 1.1982
Daily … The EURUSD filled in a Weekly FVG yesterday and hit a Bearish OB at 1.2050. Price has since reversed and moving lower as we would expect. I do not expect a big move to the downside though. Will be looking for support around 1.1990. This is my downside target for today. Will look for a retrace up to the Hourly Mitigation Block at 1.2022 and NYMO at 1.2031 before taking a move down.
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG High 1.4141 (Daily)
Bullish – NYMO 1.3929 … next OB/Weekly Open 1.3841
Daily … Price so far today is flat. Potentially looking for a move down to the Hourly OB and Weekly Open at 1.3841. Ideally, will need to see a move down away from the NYMO and then retrace back up to it for any type of entry. Right now, the M15 does not show any high probability entries even though we are at the NYMO level. Wait for the right setup or trade another day.
DXY – Bearish day. Price gradually moved higher but took a quick drop in late morning trading and dropped all the way down to the Daily OB at 91.03, where it currently sits.
EURUSD – Flat day. The downside target was 1.1990 on the day, but price only made it as low as 1.1998 before moving higher. It initially found resistance at the NYMO but has drifted a little higher and consolidated so far today.
GBPUSD – Bearish day. Price essentially moved sideways yesterday. We did see one drop in price down to the Daily OB & Breaker at 1.3901, which supported price and pushed it right back to the NYMO level.
Key Levels
Bearish –FVG High 91.49
Bullish –OB 91.03
Bias – Bullish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG High 91.33 … next OB 91.54
Bullish – NYMO 91.11 … next OB 91.03 (Daily)
Daily … With another bounce off the Daily OB at 91.03, I will be looking for price to move higher today. Targeting yesterday’s high above 91.43, but could see some resistance at 91.33, which is the top of the Hourly FVG created yesterday.
Key Levels
Bearish –NYMO 1.2036
Bullish – Brkr 1.1990 (Daily) … next OB 1.1982
Daily … With the Dollar moving higher, I am looking for the EURUSD to move lower. However, price right now is at a key H1 Rebalance area. These are typically very strong areas, in this case it would be support. Will watch closely, but I do not expect it to hold this time. Would like to see a push through this area, then retrace back up to it and act as resistance, then move lower and take out yesterday low at 1.1998 and reach for the Weekly open at 1.1982.
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG High 1.4141
Bullish – OB/Brkr 1.3901… next FVG Low 1.3716
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.3938
Bullish – OB/Brkr 1.3901 (Daily) … next OB/Weekly Open 1.3841
Daily … Price looks like it can break down from yesterday’s consolidation. Will need price to move through the Daily OB and Breaker at 1.3901 which was already hit yesterday. Ideally will be looking for a move back up to the NYMO at 1.3938 and then move down towards the Weekly Open at 1.3841.
DXY – Bullish day. Price held nicely at the Daily OB before moving higher as expected. Price moved all the way up to 91.42 … one cent shy of the 91.43 I was targeting.
EURUSD – Bearish day. Well … that rebalance area supported price quite well. Pushed price higher before it finally found resistance and dropped again. Unfortunately, the retrace higher was a bit more extreme than I was expecting and it took out my SL. But, as expected, price then moved lower and took out yesterday’s low at 1.1998, which was my target. Price filled in a small Daily FVG, found support, and then moved higher.
GBPUSD – Bearish day. Nice expansion to the downside yesterday as expected. However, we did not get the retrace higher needed to find an entry point. Price started to come up and came close to providing an entry but came up short and shot down. It reached the Weekly Open target at 1.3841 and Hourly OB where price found support and moved higher.
Key Levels
Bearish –FVG High 91.49
Bullish –OB 91.03
Bias – Bearish to flat
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 91.21 … next FVG High 91.33
Bullish –next OB 91.03 (Daily)
Daily … The dollar has already made a bit move down today. Not sure how much farther it can go. It is at the Daily OB of 91.03 again, which has worked well as support all week. We could either see price consolidate between the NYMO and the Daily OB or break through the OB and move much lower. Ideally, I want the later to happen in order to set up a trade but will watch price until something happens.
Key Levels
Bearish –OB 1.2151 (daily)
Bullish – NYMO 1.2022 … NEXT Brkr 1.1990 (Daily) … next OB 1.1982
Daily … The EURUSD has essentially moved sideways all week. Today, price has already found resistance at the upper end of that consolidation range. Just like on the Dollar, I will be expecting more consolidation with a possibility that price could expand higher. Only looking for a trade if price expands above yesterday’s high of 1.2070.
Key Levels
Bearish – MB 1.3886 … next OB 1.3929
Bullish – NYMO 1.3859 …next OB 1.3766
Daily … Not going to happen today, but that 1.4000 handle is looking mighty juicy!! Today could see price move a little higher. Already found resistance at the Hourly Mitigation Block at 1.3886. This can push price back to the NYMO at 1.3859, where it should find support and then expand higher. Will be targeting the H1 OB at 1.3929.
February is where list some of the abbreviations and explain them a little. But here you go…
NOTE: I have updated terminology in my forecast to what I actually use. Support and resistance are generic terms that mean can be determined by any number of methods. I do not use support in resistance in my trading. The updated terms you will see are:
-OB … Bearish Order Block
+OB … Bullish Order Block
FVG … Fair Value Gap
BISI … Buyside Imbalance Sellside Inefficiency
SIBI … Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency
NYMO … New York Midnight Open
EURUSD – Bullish day. Price did indeed move above Thursday’s high at 1.2070 and move dup all the way to 1.2100. However, did not get a clear entry setup so no trades.
GBPUSD – Bullish day. As forecast, the Hourly OB at 1.3886 acted as strong resistance and kept the price below this level on the day. Price did move back down the NYMO as expected and then right back to the OB to close out the day.
Key Levels
Bearish – Weekly Open 90.87 … next OB 90.92 … next 2-Day Prior Low 91.00
Bullish –NYMO 91.72
Weekly … We have seen three consecutive weeks of strong downward moves. I am expecting that trend to continue this week. Price could retrace up to the 2-Week Prior Low at 91.49 first and then move lower. I am targeting 89.00 on the downside. No, not likely going to happen this week, but this level is a big draw on price and will frame bullish trades on the EURUSD and GBPUSD for the week.
Daily … Price has already moved down today and is sitting just above a liquidity draw below 90.65. I will be looking for price to reach into the liquidity today. Price also already retraced up into a Bearish OB during the London session and is moving lower from that level.
Key Levels
Bearish –OB 1.2151
Bullish – 2-Day Prior High (also a Breaker) 1.2070 … next 2-Week Prior High 1.1995
Bias – Bullish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish –NYMO 1.2110
Bullish – OB 1.2072 & 2-Day Prior High 1.2070 (Daily – also Breaker) … next OB 1.1982
Weekly … Still mirroring the Dollar, price on the EURUSD has seen three strong weeks of bullish price movement. I am expecting that to continue this week. On the Weekly level, there is a liquidity draw above 1.2240. That is within reach this week. Price could first dip down to the 2-Week Prior at 1.1995 but does not need to and has not done this the past couple weeks.
Daily … So far today, the NYO at 1.2110 has acted well as resistance. Will be looking for a move down as low as the Hourly OB at 1.2072 which aligns with a Daily Breaker and 2-Day Prior High at 1.2070. However, The Weekly Open at 1.2097 could support price from moving lower too. Will then be targeting the Daily OB at 1.2151.
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG High 1.4141
Bullish – OB 1.3687
Bias – Bullish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG High 1.4082
Bullish – NYMO 1.3900 …next OB 1.3766
Weekly … Price has basically moved sideways for a couple months. There is a very nice liquidity draw above 1.4000, which is what I will be targeting this week. A move into this area could see price expand rapidly and also reach for the Weekly and Monthly Rejection Blocks above 1.4180.
Daily … price already moved up to the Hourly OB at 1.3929 during the London Session today. It found resistance and came right back down to find support at the NYMO of 1.3900. Price could consolidate today one the GBPUSD based on the EURGBP price action. Price in approaching a Daily Bearish OB so in the move higher towards that OB, We are likely to see the EURUSD move higher and the GBPUSD consolidate. However, once that OB is hit and price starts dropping, we could very well see a large bullish expansion on the GBPUSD. Not looking for a trade on this pair until the EURGBP gives me more guidance.
Thank you for your response. Really liking the daily updates. I have been trading Forex for almost 10 years so I know most of the terms. This is helpful!
