This week is the second time I took a blow. A powerful smash right into my forehead. It seems like the good people of Japan this time did pretty well after 7.0 earthquake. But did I? - NO. -I really feel like the tsunami has hit me instead. And above all this is the second time I’m eating it pretty well. See, because you expect or rather you assume that if this and this happens, then this and this should be happening afterward. But: [B]“A: What did I tell you about the assumption being the brother of all f…ups? - B: It’s the mother of all f…ups stupid! A: Well brother mother or any other sucker!” - Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels.[/B] - This just blew my mind. Because I never really took it seriously. Instead I’ve always found it hilarious. But in the end it turned out to be true. The lesson of the day NEVER ASSUME in forex market, 'cause if you do, you’d be a f…ckup.
Looking across the charts, you will instantaneously notice what I’m talking about.
USD/JPY : Pierced through Weekly S2 with a 166 pip range, sudden fall.
AUD/JPY: Pierced through Weekly S3 with a 321 pip range, massive fall.
EUR/JPY: Barely holding around Weekly S3 with a 510 pip range, enormous fall.
GBP/JPY: Broke through Weekly S3 with a 425 pip range, free fall.
CAD/JPY: Seems like Weekly S3 is holding it for the moment. 289 pip range, DOWN.
NZD/JPY: Pierced through everything. 320 pip range. Down you go!
CHF/JPY: This is tricky. This actually you would call it a normal pair, because it didn’t react!
Now you see, I HATE TRENDING MARKETS, for the apparent reason that you don’t really know when to jump the rope. “Is it now?” - “Should I jump in now!?” - I find it very hard to determine a trend. Because of this I adopted to trade only fake-outs. I would constantly make up to 500 pips a week trading fake-outs! -But please don’t ask me about this week! - I’m really embarrassed. -1800 PIPS! :33: -This is the time when you call me a genius. Anyway. The reason why I’m mad, is because of the fact that I was tricked. “Fool me once, good for you. Fool me twice, it’s my fault”. I was tricked by my own mind. Because I’ve eaten it once. The first time I took the hit was in march, it just killed me! - Nobody know what the hell was going on, but the YEN was skyrocketing! - So from that time on, I decided that when I see something like this happening, I would stay aside and wait for the market to calm down. But no! - I ASSUMED that, because (see the genius in action) the magnitude was only 7.0 compared to 7.8 last time, and because there were no tsunamis, the market should be calm! -Jesus Christ, I can see myself reading Earthquake readings like I would read NFP Reports!
Now we have the Franc. The never falling Angel as I call it. Why? - Because you always ‘assume’ (damn the assumption) that: OK dear Franc, it is time for you to go down. But it doesn’t! - This sucker keeps going. It’s not an angel, it’s a wild pig! - Somebody shoot’em please! - See this weeks charts and you would easily notice that, CHF somehow correlates to YEN’s path. And this was true for march as well. They were correlative during the first Earthquake, same as this week. - NEVER ASSUME. Or if you are a gambler, assume and do the opposite, maybe that would help. Double assumption! -A bit scary!
Anyhow, the lesson for this week is:
- DON’T ASSUME
- History’s proven to repeat itself. (But don’t assume this.) *(Now it’s a paradox, Jesus!)
Anyway, I hope you learned something from my mistake.
Have fun.