My daily bias for today is that we will start to see some strength in the $, and therefore will be looking for the short. The chart i posted was a potential area to watch for me, not a definite short… Looking at the situation this morning, missed a nice double top on the 1H with a shooting star at the daily high, could have been a nice entry…
But i will wait out till LO to see if anything presents itself after the Asian range…
I second that… Hoping to see an early price drive at LO to around the 1.599-1.6 area (monthly/yearly resistance), and then will look to get in short on a price rejection in that area…
I guess time will tell, i could be completely wrong lol…
im toning it down while i rake in some knowledge…dont worry the bad boy will be back as soon as i pull off a big win…
but that aside…i want to go to a proper forex environment for a full time job…because i read some of the technical templates threads…and those guys really had a deep understanding of what goes on…and who is doing it and the workings of the banks and traders…stuff i think that will be very difficult to learn …unless you are in that environment.
plus i believe that if you are in a proper forex environment …they probably have a development team that will construct whatever you ask for…
like i would like to actually put eu on the same chart as gu to monitor correlation and maybe even put au on the same chart…you know…get the tools i want…
plus they are no doubt totally aware of important fundamentals…stuff that i may overlook…id rather be on the charts all day with someone shouting …everybody listen when some important fundamental data is being unleashed on the market…
better than being at home and completely missing the play…either cause it didnt ever occur to me to be paying attention to that report…
plus being able to quickly discuss something with another good trader and get his point of view.
plus latching on to a proper trader who has a philosophy and technique that has made him a multi multi millionaire…
i think that i will learn to become a proper decent trader in about a year in a decent forex environment…but on my own with just the forums …it could take 5 to 10 years…and im hoping to have become a multi millionaire long before 5 years are up.
plus if i can get some of the silly bonuses like a good few hundred grand i can have a nice fat steak in the market in no time.
i like fast money…i know its better to be conservative and very careful…but that isnt my personality…
im not reckless…but am a risk taker…
i just want to be sure that when i take the big risks that i am confident that i have made my decisions like a pro…
in fact …that putting my neck out and confronting (well the whole forum really)…taught me a lot…you guys pointed out some really interesting facts…that i looked into…and found good advice…
being in contention with you guys made me delve deeper and deeper into reasons why you were wrong…and i was actually digging around like a mad man to get some sort of sign that proved you all wrong…it made me scan every cable chart in great detail…i was drawing trend lines everywhere…you taught me about bias and how effective support and resistance levels were…
i started to anticipate lots of new things that hadnt even crossed my mind before going into battle with you guys…
you made me re-evaluate my order and look at risk to reward scenarios…think carefully about where to put my stops.
i saw the importance of highs and lows…you unwittingly put me onto the technical traders threads…i mean …wow guys
it was a massive learning experience for me …and great fun too…thanks guys…
i even noticed you all waiting …not counting your chickens as the market went my way…as you guessed it was gonna go back your way …and (big truck would get his comeuppance)…and it did…
then i didnt want to give you all the pleasure…and decided to cover my losses and hedged…
i mean it brought out a lot of sharp thinking about the market …and also enlightened me to lots of different things.
it was great.
thanks guys.
7:04 currently - £13,000 down on my deal 250 lots
the double top formation is on the daily GU …we are now at the second top…if it holds…
yesterdays performance went against the trend …in my opinion.
and its either gonna be a change in trend…or its at least gonna pull back to my messy trend line…
and i intend to get out when it does…and then decide wether to go long or short after…
Your long is looking good for now i think, i was tempted to get in in the 1.594-ish area as it looked like it hit some demand but stayed out… Im still hoping for a drive up to the 1.599-1.6 and then hoping to see some stopping power and will look to get in short… Let’s hope this happens or i’ve just missed my entry on the long lol…
There are probably some option barriers just before 1.60. Don’t confuse that initial rejection for a meaningful one just yet.
You’ll get a few pips out of it, but I think there will be another run up.
Loll, believe it or not i was 1 pip away from being stopped out at one point… I don’t want to make a habit of moving my SL, if i get stopped out for bad placement of my SL then so be it - which i think this trade is bad placement!
To me, the chart still says we are in for a drop, but these small fluctuations in this range are killing me, really got to stop watching my chart! Just want to lock in some profit and lock BE before i head off to lunch, thereafter its a free trade and i dont have to worry about it anymore lol…
the asian range levels hey…im gonna have to look at that …
right …thats all my positions closed off at a few grand profit…
as i have to nip out in half an hour and i dont like the uncertainty of it…
so all good.
once the GU breaks down under 1.59 convincingly. …that is probably the proper time to short the trade …if i was acting responsibly and jumping in at a safe time…less pips but a safe bet…then its the time for the big pip run down…i think. as it will be back under my trend line…
i have 2 important trend lines one mid term running from october 2011 to date…and its right under that now
and the other longer term trend line from august 2011 to date means it needs to close under 1.59 …then i think we are back on trend which is bearish…and i expect it will go to the 1.5s and lower…over the next couple of months.
which is what this thread is all about…being a newbie …just got shaken a bit with the unexpected double top thing…at one stage i started to feel like it may break out above the 1.6 proper…which was getting to mean i would be carrying too many pips loss…for comfort…
edit …looking at the daily chart.
but im gonna wait for a nice entry point and im still gonna throw the house at it…
just in a more controlled fashion… but the big pips are still on …according to the way i see the charts…and very very probable…
yes thats great…glad to see your feeling confident on a close below…
i know its headed down…its just going a fancy way about it…
if it fails to break the 1.59 tomorrow with a candle body on the daily. dont mind if shadow breaks it…then im definitely gonna be happy about it…
but lesson i have learned is …if you want the big swings…and your confident they are deffo gonna happen…you really need deep pockets, and patients, the trend is always your friend…and its not a good idea to watch the chart as much as i have been doing …if its a long term swing…as you can start to doubt yourself…plus be careful of the leverage as you need a wide stop loss…
maybe its a bad move…but it makes sense to have a 100 pip stop loss…
but if i feel i need a stop loss 250 pips above 1.59…minimum on this particular trade.
it makes sense to me…but maybe if that is the way i feel then i shouldnt be entering such trades.
nevertheless…im gonna do it…and see what happens…
Yes I saw your ‘trend lines’ in an earlier pic. However you might just want to put a trend line connecting the three lows at 3486, 4211 and 5222… you could argue with equal conviction that GU is now in a longer upmove. Perhaps it would be wise not to ‘throw the house on it’. Better I think to take it by 4h, day and weekly and play out the shorter moves? Just a thought.
