starting to really appreciate the monthly chart too.
it seems to clearly state trend and possible opportunity for some major pips…in a big way and long term
looking at the GU monthly and the chart on which tang put on a lower trendline…it appears that the GU is still strongly trending upwards…
i know all the sub prime crisis caused value of GBP to drop…but why so much against the dollar in the period july 2008 to dec/ 2009 ? does anyone know why this happened to be so drastic ?
Personally, i don’t look much at the monthly time frame… I’ll have a glance to get a general direction, but i think unless you are going to hold trades for the longer term, its not as important…
For my, i made it my rule of thumb when analyzing to throw up the weekly highs and lows, daily highs/lows and some session highs and lows… As i’ve seen them be quite important trading intraday…
Well looks like a chart isn’t going to happen this afternoon, but it’s just a simple old school triple screen method. Start by opening a 30m, 5m, & 1m chart all with just a 14 period moving average, doesn’t make any difference either sma or ema will be fine.
Use the 14 ma on the 30m to determine whether you’d be better looking for shorts or long, If the price is above the 14ma and the angle of the ma is 2:00 to 12:00 o clock you’re going to look for long. If the price is below and angle is 4:00 to 6:00 o clock, shorts
Now we’re going to work with the 5m & 1m. Let’s say the price is below the 14 ma on the 30m and above the 14 ma on the 5m & 1m.
Wait for the price on the 1m to cross below the 14 ma that’s your early warning signal for the 14 ma cross on the 5m. When the price crosses the 14 ma on the 5m, look over to the 1m and study how it moves. Ideally the price on the 1m will retrace up a little and then start back down. That’s when you want to place your order.
Now there really are no rules, everyday, session, and pair will be and act different. This is not a system, it’s just a guide to follow. You’ll slowly develop a feel for how the price, moving averages, and time frames all interact with each other. You want to enter & exit your trades based on the price action, candles and the relationship with the moving average, not just the moving average cross.
After spending hours & hours, watching the 5m & 1m charts they will start to make some sense. And I don’t mean spending 10 or 20 hours, I mean hundreds of hours. Like a lot of endeavors in life, you practice long enough and you’ll start to understand it.
You might feel lost and want to add some indicators & stuff but all you need is right there on the 3 charts. Oh, I forgot, you do want to plot S/R levels, trendlines, and fibs just like you would on the higher time frames, very important.
I’m sure I’ve left out something extremely important, but hopefully you get the basic idea.
At a high level - there’s way, way more debt denominated in USD than there is actual USD in existence. So when the global economy crashed and people needed to pay that debt they needed to buy USD. Then add in people pulling their money out of riskier assets (stocks, etc.) and converting back in USD. Then add in people changing their money from other currencies into USD as it has the perception that it’s a less risky asset to own given the economic strength of the US. All that sudden demand for USD made it’s price go way up.
nice one for that d pip…im gonna experiment with it…very informative as a starting point
…thanks a lot for that …
thanks for that pip bandit…very informative…
i know some savvy individuals packaging debt together and selling it on created the sub prime crisis in the usa…so i would have guessed that the rest of the world would have started panicking and pulling out of us bonds and currency …especially when lehmans went under.
im glad i wasnt trading currency at the time…i would have backed the fundamental data the wrong way.
looking bullish today…it really is on that up trend…
could be looking to bounce off or go through 1.6070 and 1.6100 levels in the near future…
ill wait for it to drop a bit and go long with a small position…so i can afford a wide stop…then ill let this one ride.
I have this weird feeling this morning was a big fake out before a drop… Already got stopped out this morning on a trade so gonna sit on the sidelines until i can get a clearer direction, hopefully a retrace before NY will get me in sync with the day…
… But who knows! lol
Happy trading!
i think you could be right it appears to be a bit of excitement this morning…but fakeout aside…for a longer term trade i think its gonna keep rising gbp/usd. …and sitting on the fence aint a bad idea right now.
forgot to mention…
i think i found a foolproof trading strategy…the holy grail has been located …
this is it.
i study the market real hard continuously …until i am confident i have got a great sound trade.
then trade in exactly the OPPOSITE DIRECTION…
I agree the [I]longer[/I] term trend will keep it rising…
But more intraday and possibly into next week im swayed into looking for shorts… I’ve got a swing trade running long on the USD/CHF which sways my bias to say EU and GU will be bearish - medium term…
So until the charts show me otherwise, im inclined to say this morning was a large fake out… GU looks like its dropping slowly, but going to keep eyes for a retracement before i get in short now…
Also, i think usually when a trade goes up that fast and that hard, it could come straight back down…
But anyway, time will tell…
you see my charts are saying go short on the usd chf since a crossover of some exponential averages happened last night at 0.90663…but i didnt take it… and H1 H4 and daily chart says same thing…so if my holy grail thing is right…your on the money.
LOL!!
GU is shaping up how i thought so far… Keep wishing i just went short on the face of that huge bullish bar after the long wick rejection at 1.603… Ah well, shoulda coulda woulda isn’t going to earn me any pips… Gonna sit on my hands and wait for my entry…
My limit order just triggered, im in short from 1.6009…
ive got a limit order set up to go long at 1.5890…from there im confident the move will be up…got a stop loss on for 1.5840
under my trend line.
I’ll be closing 1/3 of my position there and locking SL to BE, so provided we get down to there, good luck 
Let’s hope we can both make some money on this today!
i hope so…only problem is its friday…and im gonna watch the implications of that …i heard that it can be a quiet day…so maybe ill cancel the order if its looking dodgy and wait till monday…
eblip, Last night I remembered an old thread by petefader and looked it up, take a look. It’s very similar to what I was trying to tell you about yesterday, but petefader does a much better job of explaining it with nice pics to boot.
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/30927-mad-scalper-38.html
You could use just the 5m as his set-up does, I’d suggest also pulling up the 30m 5m, 1m and watch all three. I don’t know about the murry math lines, might just stick to using S/R levels, fibs, daily pivots or whatever you like.
