I’m glad you didn’t mention the 15 minutes, lol. Anyways, my particular [U]profitable[/U] strat would also work down to the minute chart or without any chart.
Just wondering when the first guy will step in here with a profitable scalping strat out of 1m …
I am afraid to tell you that it is confident. Has nothing to do with you in person.
You know, a strat what is highly successful (and not just ego babble) what would be revealed to the public would still be a highly successful strat. Just not in the future. It would belong to the past. So, nobody would get any highly successful gain out of it. Not the producer who put in work sweat and blood and not the followers. I hope you will understand this.
The only thing I can tell you and this is already a lot: It has to do with chaos theory and it doesn’t need any chart. If you are looking for a highly successful strat, you may look that road down. Plus I am sure if you look long enough and invest some energy and time, you may find what suits you. I wish you success!
Just one question: What is with all the other strats around here at bp? Are they not profitable?
Just for the record, I do not know now if this is a really highly successful strat. It just looks like in backtest and 8 weeks live made a small profit not loss.
Support and resistance help you to see the big picture. This are the things that you MUST have in your charts:
4H and daily 20, 100 and 200 moving averages
weekly pivot points (update this every week)
monthly pivot points (update this every month)
yesterday high and low (update this every day)
last week high and low
last month high and low
last year high and low.
keep in mind that those are not entry signals, they help you identify the feeling of the market. There are other resistance and support lines, im talking about triangles, trendlines, and other patterns, but those are more subjective, so if you are going to use them i would suggest to only look at the bigger timeframes (4H and up)
If I had to pick 2 lines to put on my chart it would be the previous week’s close, and yesterday’s New York close (5pm EST). It really helps me to define the current price level by having a consistent starting point to work from.
It seems more objective to use the daily, weekly, monthly high and low and pivot points rather than looking at a chart and the noting the top or bottom of a wave. Or is that part of the equation as well. I remember reading some trading book with chart with s/r lines drawn and successful trades made. But the lines seemed so subjective with no reasonable explanation why the s/r lines were drawn at one point and not another. As a result I gave up on s/r lines and am just now revisiting them.
Important thing about these lines is in the retesting, it’s strength is measured by this retesting in both directions. Second important thing is to look at the line as more of a 10pip zone, and thirdly the 4hr chart gives, in my opinion, the best overall image of what a pair is up to, so start there when plotting.
Thanks for the well-labeled chart. This is probably just the way I would draw it (after much practice), yet this is also a perfect picture of some of my frustration with s/r.
Not all the s/r lines are drawn, obviously because not all of them are relevant. This is the question. When I’m sitting at the peak soon after Nov 1, how do I know which s/r lines are relevant? For every line you drew on the chart, there are 2 or 3 s/r lines that could be drawn, maybe more. Which ones are actually useful before I go sliding down that slippery slope?
At this point, I’m using fibonacci to help out my s/r–another tool I’m revisiting–plus paying attention to significant numbers–1.3200, 1.4000, etc.
And then a minor detail: On a down trend, aren’t the highs considered support and the lows resistance–the opposite of an uptrend? Either way I know what you mean.
Yes, the chart just shows a few examples, there are more you could draw.
As you point out, with practice you will start to feel less frustrated with finding their placement on your charts. You can always compare yours to a trusted source on the internet.
Many S&R levels are less subjective like yesterdays or weekly high lows, MA’s, pivots etc.
At this point, I’m using fibonacci to help out my s/r–another tool I’m revisiting–plus paying attention to significant numbers–1.3200, 1.4000, etc.
Fair enough, they are certainly on my list when I’m looking for a confluence point.
I know exactly how you feel. I pretty much dismissed S&R too because I didn’t know what price levels were relevant or not either, and then I had all these what seemed like random lines all over my chart which became no different than having all sorts of indicators all over my chart.
I too am in the process of revisiting them, but this time with a little more order to them. First I used the zig zag indicator on each time frame to help locate obvious swing highs and lows at which to draw my lines. These I colored and labeled…ie green for monthly, Lime for weekly, orange for daily and so on. Then on the lower timeframes the lines became more spaced apart and more significant. I also label & draw the daily/weekly/monthly highs & lows in another color.
As for trading, it would seem it’s all about trading tests and retests of these areas, especially where they converge with other tools ie pivots, fibs, chart patterns. If price is ranging, then you trade the reversals (or bounce) at these support and resistance areas, if it’s trending then you trade the test of broken support and resistance in the direction of the trend. Losses usually result when price transitions from ranging to trending and vice versa and should be considered a means of feedback to detect the transition when considering the next setup.
Sometimes there are long periods of waiting for price to move from one level to the next, but that’s the beauty of pending orders so you don’t have to constantly sit in front of the computer in case you miss it when price does get there.
My first thought as I was reading this was “Eeew, I hate the zig zag indicator!” This is because you can make decisions based on the zig zag and then everything can change if a new higher high or lower low is made. This is of course only my opinion/preference. But then…
As for trading, it would seem it’s all about trading tests and retests of these areas, especially where they converge with other tools ie pivots, fibs, chart patterns.
This reminded me that price moves in unexpected ways, and (as far as I know) all indicators give false signals, or early signals, or late signals. Signals from s/r, fibonacci lines, ma lines, pivot points, or any indicator is really just a suggestion, and if plan A doesn’t work out and the trend doesn’t reverse (or whatever example you want to insert here), then you have to have a plan B.
Zig Zag / Elliot Wave, or as I call it dog leg, if S/R is at an uncompleted ‘wave’ it will break, see this image, the support had a big chance of being broken because it was the middle of a wave and hence uncompleted.
So yes, S/R or effective but you have to understand what has gone beforehand.