Elliott Wave Analysis: USDCAD Moving in Impulsive Structure

Trading Discussion
1

USDCAD Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the decline from 3/19 high (1.313) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 1.313, Minor wave 1 ended at 1.2819, Minor wave 2 ended at 1.2943, and Minor wave 3 is in progress. Internal of Minor wave 3 also unfolded as an impulse with a nest. Minute wave ((i)) of 3 ended at 1.2771, Minute wave ((ii)) of 3 ended at 1.2847, and Minute wave (((iii)) is unfolding as a 5 waves of lesser degree.

Down from Minute wave ((ii)) at 1.2847, Minutte wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 1.274, Minutte wave (ii) of ((iii)) ended at 1.2819, and Minutte wave (iii) of ((iii)) should complete with 1 more leg lower. Afterwards, expect pair to do minor bounce in Minutte wave (iv) of ((iii)) before turning lower again. While Minor wave 2 pivot at 4/2 high (1.2943) stays intact, expect pair to extend lower a few more legs before ending the entire 5 waves structure from 3/19 high. We don’t like buying the pair.

USDCAD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

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USDCAD has broken above 11/29/2018 high (1.336) as well as above 6/27/2018 high (1.3386) creating incomplete bullish sequence. Short term Elliott Wave view suggests the rally to 1.336 on 11/29 ended Intermediate wave (W) and the pullback to 1.3157 ended Intermediate wave (X). Internal of Intermediate wave (X) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Minor wave A ended at 1.324. Minor wave B bounce ended at 1.333, and Minor wave C of (X) ended at 1.3157 low.

Up from 1.3157, pair has made a new high above Intermediate wave (W) at 1.3157, suggesting the next leg higher has started. The rally is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 1.322 and Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 1.316. Expect pair to do 1 more leg higher to end the 5 waves impulse and complete Minor wave A of larger degree. Pair should then pullback in Minor wave B to correct cycle from 12/3/2018 low in 3-7-11 swing before the rally resumes.

USDCAD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart