EMA Rejection/Bounce strategy looking very positive with testing!. - Happy to share ideas or start a group with others

I completely agree and that’s one I struggle with now. I have been doing a risk reward of 2:1 and some of them trades I posted would of been taken at 1.

I did try on some once 2 is hit to then put the stop behind to see if it would continue, I’m not sure what is the best way with this? As I think you could have some big winners if you can stay in as long as possible.

I haven’t looked into scaling or pyramiding yet is this worthwhile?

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I use almost identical system but with 8EMA 20SMA and 50 SMA.
Mostly I trade DAX on 5min and 1min
8EMA and 20SMA cross overs are good.
I think that if you are using 5min then when 1min 8EMA starts to bend toward 20SMA it can be a good exit. I’m not a big fan of pull backs so much, as they can turn in to reversals. Pull backs going back into trend can be a good trend confirmation. I personally tend to favour exiting when pulling back and re enter on confirmation.
I look upon this system as being MACD without MACD.
It tells you everything MACD without the distraction of having to look down at MACD and you can concentrate on candles better.
I never use take profit if I can ride a trend. And the standard ATR can be very misleading, one big candle in the last 14 throws it out of kilter.
I think that you have a very good system.
I wish you all the best.

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Hi, thanks very much for replying, that’s interesting you do something kind of similar! I did look at crossovers when I first tried to learn about Forex so my knowledge was quite poor and stopped as I realised you get lots of fake opportunities, how do you stop this from happening in your system?

I’ve been looking at it on the 15min chart but think it works on all timeframes, so do you think using an 8 would benefit me in terms of when to exit a trade or potential set ups coming for my method if it crosses??

I do agree with the atr as I tried this for stop kosses but if you get one big candle it can really throw this out.

Anything else you think could help? And how successful have you been with your strategy you seem to confident with it?

Thanks
Shaun

Hi Shaun
I haven’t done much today, but had a couple of thoughts.
Yes this system works on all time frames but as I have just mentioned on another thread I prefer 1min and 5min.
A point that I have pondered is why bother with the 50SMA ? It does give some confirmation of trend direction and often acts as a resistance/support also gives some confluence of other time frames but something Al Brooks recommends is ‘concentrate on one time frame’. I know most traders would disagree but we are dealing with micro trends on theses small time frames. What can be a lovely 1/2 hour down trend on the 1 minute chart can be a mere short pullback on the 1 hour upward trend. So I ask does it really matter what is happening on the bigger time frames ? Sometimes I think we over complicate things.
A long time ago (well 10yrs) I was big into Fibonacci Grid trading were you are looking for Fibonacci confluence on 4 or 5 time frames to scalp the 1 minute time frame OMG what a palaver.
I tend to agree with Al Brooks and you seem to have a handle on candle price action.
As I’ve said I trade the DAX and if you have a look you will find that just after London open it gives some nice little tends on 5min and 1min. I think it perhaps helps to concentrate on one thing, Sometimes I will do Nasdaq.
Just practice what you are doing and what suits you.
In my humble opinion, you are as near to the Holy Grail as it gets ! :wink:

Haha the holy grail! If only…

So your advice on jumping on a trend, when do I get out??

I do agree with what you’re saying with one timeframe to a degree or can get very messy, I was looking at say an hour timeframe to see if it is the same but it should be as it’s only 4 candles on from the 15 I guess.

The 50ema I trade as it does seem to bounce of this quite regularly and if it passes this it’s a good indication the trend could well be over.

I’ve also tried the fib and all sorts and did go to just using price action but the market always seems to react slightly differently to how you’re taught in order to catch you out I feel!

The 1 Min and 5 min are so fast, I’m still trying my best to be as good as possible and for me to work out the risk with my stops I’ll never be quick enough on the 1/5 haha

I think I just need that little tweek that stops me getting in too many times

Hi @Shaungliddon,

I came up with something similar a few months ago. I used a 20MA along with the Ich. Cloud. You can check it out here if you want. I never went much further with it as I already had a couple of different strategies on the go. But you never know, it might give you some ideas.

Good luck!

Charts in multiple time-frames are unnecessary if you’re using MA’s with multiple periods. You still need a primary time-frame from which you derive your SL level and therefore your TP or pyramid or SL adjustment to b/e level.

Most traders are told by most trainers to use multiple time-frames and most traders lose money…

Thank you, I had a look, how did you find it.?

Did you test it in all conditions? I have and it obviously is terrible when it’s not trending…

I make sure all 3 EMAS are fanning and it seems to work well.

Did you adapt any newer strategies using something like this?

Yeah I agree it makes me think instead of the 200 I should work out what it should be for a higher timeframe trend then it’s just on one chart, although 200 probably does the job!

That’s exactly what I think, most ppl fail at this so I need to think differently to most. It needs be simple and sensible.

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When to get out ? - You can wait until the 8EMA crosses back or when the candles are getting away from the 8EMA and the next candle starts to come back say 1/3 cos the 8EMA works like a magnet. If you are on the 5min you can use the 1min to help judge.
The more you practice it starts to become a bit instinctive really. Don’t be so worried about leaving some pips on the table. It’s a pretty mechanical system but nothing is absolute.

Yeah I always find it hard knowing where to take profit! Hardest part of it is say, I’ve never used the 8ema so I will try this with my strategy and see how it works.

Maybe I’ll move down to the 5 from the 15 and see how it’s moving. I’m definitely not scared to leave some in there’s if anything I leave too much on my winners as they hot a take profit and that’s it

I have forgotten the name of the famous trader who said -
" I trade trends - You can have the first 20% and the last 20%, I will have the 60% in the middle "

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That’s all I want! See I’ve made a few mistakes actually and still finding a good way where price comes up from a downtrend say into a new uptrend and I buy the first rejection of an ema, you need to find a trend that’s probably already established, you might not get it all BUT we don’t need it all.

Every trade and I mean every example, and each and every example you manage to pick the opposite swing high/low as your exit point. This is an amazing skill to possess and how we lie to ourselves. The markets will never lie to you and they will destroy your balance if you lie to it.

Solid entry strategy you have chosen but. Stick with it. Learn it, live it, love it. Never every deviate from it. But it is just and entry strategy. You with need to have an identify and filter strategy to find the best applications (assets) in the current market to apply it. You with also need a management strategy to make the most of each trade.

What my simplistic friend is saying here is that this is a dumb exit strategy that will again destroy your account with a death of 1000 cuts. But simple preach simple!

Lots of work ahead for you my friend. Remember markets are dynamic and each and every trade is different and must be managed accordingly.

Hi, thank you for your very honest reply :slight_smile:

I would love to say I pick the highs and lows of every trade but that’s far from the truth, these are trades and potential moves using this, as stated in a reply above most of the time I just got a profit target of 2 risk - im always looking to learn and that’s why I’m trying to state my thoughts here and would love to know how you think I can tweek this for Improvements especially with the ‘dumb’ profit targets?

Without a doubt I need a strategy in itself to find the correct markets moving in the correct way for this strategy and that’s something I’m trying to find, websites or data that tells me when short trends are forming?!

You seem to be very critical which is absolutely fine that’s how I learn, but would love to hear how you think this could be improved or tweeked for the better.

Either way thanks for your reply :ok_hand:t2::muscle:t3:

Unfortunately not up to me cobber. The learning curve is yours. You’ll have different goals, different horizons, different vision to me. What makes this game different to for all of us.

As an entry strategy you have selected a pretty common one. However, as humans we like to think ourselves smarter than the thousands/millions before us and want to constantly tweak it to improve. Don’t. As you have described it is perfect.

But entry signals are the sexy bit and what they (marketers/teachers/charlatans) preach. Knowing when to exit is the skill we all need to master. Last swing high/low, channels, trendlines, ATR’s, MA crosses/slope, candlestick patterns, all valid methods. You’ll need to find what works for you. What won’t work is setting R:R targets. You’ll leave pips out on the table or let losing trades run out. It will slowly eat away at you balance.

It’s a long journey and generally one we must take for ourselves. It’s a journey into self discovery as much as a learning of the markets. And the one lesson about ourselves we don’t like to learn is that most of us a just plain greedy. Learn to control greed and you’re well on your way my friend.

Wishing you all the best cobber :fist: :facepunch: :banana: :monkey:

It’s such a shame a Forex guru like yourself couldn’t offer any real advice or changes but I appreciate your time

Thanks Cobber

Im no guru champ. Its hard work for me every day. My real job brings in the bacon.

Its also far easier and more rewarding. But i can do something many cant. Just got to do it my way as you do yours and survive. Its a nasty game.

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I would say pyramiding is a way to maximise your returns. It isn’t enough to be right with direction and get in and get out. When you win you want to win big.

A pyramiding technique I have used is to add a second trade when profit equals risk, add a third when profit equals 2 x risk and so on. Each time you add a new trade use the same SL distance back from entry and move the SL on the earlier trades to the same price. This was how I made the biggest win of my career. So far.

It has down-sides. You’re more likely to get a break-even outcome. You’re less likely to get small wins. But one thing is guaranteed, if you get out at a fixed TP in a running trend, it is 100% certain you will miss out on the big wins. I haven’t tried this on intra-day trades, I normally stick to the dailies.

Yeah that is interesting, its definitely worth looking at when i do some testing, I really appreciate you bringing it to my attention, I 100% agree that if I am using a system that gets me onto a trend I need to stay with the trend until it shows signs of changing and thats what I need to master.

What do you feel about moving my stop loss to say BE when im at risk 1/2 etc and more moving the loss up as I go?