Emerging Markets Weekly: Looking to Fade Recent EM Strength

• USD/MXN very well supported by 13.00; look for upside breakout
• USD/ZAR attempting to carve base after fresh 2009 lows
• USD/TRY dips below 1.5000 not to be sustained
• USD/SGD seen accelerating on break back above 50-Day SMA


USD/MXN – Very well supported by the 13.00 handle with the market locked in a well defined consolidation just above the figure over the past several days. Our bias favors an eventual upside push back towards the 13.80-14.00 over the coming weeks, with a break above 13.30 required to accelerate gains. Only a close below 13.00 would negate bullish outlook and give reason for concern. Strategy: LOOK TO BUY


USD/ZAR – Attempting to carve a base after breaking to fresh 2009 lows by 7.61 in the previous week. With weekly studies more oversold at this point, our bias favors the upside over the coming weeks with an initial push seen back towards 8.35 in the very near-term. Above 8.35 will accelerate and open fresh upside, while only back below 7.60 negates and gives reason for pause. Strategy: LOOK TO BUY


USD/TRY – While the market remains locked in a well defined downtrend this year, we contend that any setbacks below 1.5000 will have a hard time sustaining themselves. On Tuesday we saw a fresh 2009 low by 1.4690 ahead of the latest minor bounce. However, we look for the recent 2009 low to now support ahead of some more significant gains over the coming days back towards initial resistance in the 1.5150-1.5200 area. A close below 1.4690 negates. Strategy: LOOK TO BUY


USD/SGD – Much like Usd/Mxn, the market is locked in some very well defined consolidation with setbacks now supported in the 1.4300’s. Our bias from here is for an upside break over the coming days back towards the range highs by 1.4650 with only a close below 1.4300 to negate and give reason for shift in outlook. Back above the 50-Day SMA required to accelerate. [B]Strategy: LOOK TO BUY

[/B]Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Quant section prepared by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:

“Tech Talk” – A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)

“Morning Slices” – Morning Overview using Fundamental, Technical, Flow, and Quantitative Analysis (Includes “Trade of the Day”).
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“Indicator of the Day”A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)

“Midday Snapshot” – A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Rates.
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“Scandi Daily” A Specialized Daily Fundamental and Technical Overview of the Nordic Currencies. (This report is only distributed through email. Please contact [email protected] if you would like to be added to distribution.)
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“Daily Classical” – A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)