Most people tend to look for an [B]always winning system[/B], well it does not exists. Some claims a 90% winning rate or more, it could be true but how, most of this guys risk 20% and expect to win only 5% when the recommended is risking 1% and expecting to win 3%. Well, with high risk and low gain expectancy sure you will have more winning trades, but one single loss requires a lot of wins to cover it and two loses in a row or worse just 5 and this guy is out. The argument is kinda valid it is easier for a trade to reach 5 pips than 100 pips, but there are sometimes it gets stucked in 4,9 pips and then pulls back. Some of this guys always say it is imposible or it never happened, well or they are liying or it did not happen yet. Never say never to the market, market is one scale down from God and one upt to Chuck Norris, remember, Titanic was unsinkable, not even God could sink it, maybe it was not God but sure human stupidity did.
This comes from the need of money and the need of being right, the worst combination ever. You must take your analisys as a statistic calculation, not as the market itself and so as it is statistic it can be used in certain conditions and it is not perfect as your kinds they aren’t the best but you don’t kick them away just like that. And hence it is based over something not all time perfect you must be preppared for the worse that is why we have to tell ourselves the basic rule of trading “Cut the loses Short, let profits run” in stock market is kinda weird to do so, in forex we have SL and TP orders with no fess.
And that is why it is recommended to keep things simple, KISS method (Keep It Stupidly Simple), i am not against of using indicators, reports, news, whatever, what i don’t recommend is the excesive use of it. Maybe two or three are more than enough. Let’s say you use support and resistance levels combined with economic calendar. Let’s say later on you add EMA or SMA, maybe both. So let’s say two of them shows you an opportunity but because not all light 'em up you just let it go, and happens again and again and you notice you have let go very good opportunities. So finally all of them show the same direction, you have a big smile and bang! you pulled the trigger. So what happens next, boom! you SL was activated. Why? You’ll never know, market did what it did because it is the market. And you are depressed. With just two indis was enough, you would have not the initial big smile and the loss would be less painful to take. But don’t blame the excess or lack of indicators, they are not to blame, the blame is you, you were so confident over indicators that you’ve forgot to watch the market itself. Indicators, support and resistance lines, news reports, charts; tose elements are just an abstraction of what market is and how traders might tink or might do all together, not even candlesticks represents market at all, just a summary of each session.
Let’s put this way, the majority of traders are like drivers who think they can drive guided only by street lights and street signals, they don’t watch the road and they don’t care about their cars, the street walkers or even themselves.
That is why I insist on having psicological preparation to take loses. Taking loses is the first thing we should learn, once done that we are half a way.
I recommend you to read this book “Trade your Way to Financial Freedom” from Van Tharp, eventhought it is for stock traders, some parts of this book applies to forex too. Warning: you must read it with open minded, it can be like reading a blasfemous version of the bible. If you have read “Trading in the Zone” and that one is quite shocking, is nothing compared with this one. It will shake your floor.
Regards.