Entering the Forex Market with Investors' Money

My son is the trader not me. He never has had money to invest. He never has been employed by any business doing trades. He hardly has ever been employed at all. He is twenty five years old. He was disabled for several years with a severe form of bipolar disorder. He still is unstable, but most of the time is coherent, a big improvement. He failed out of college, and did not exactly graduate from high school. His zeal for video games as a kid turned into zeal for profits on Forex trades using a demo account on the Forex.com trading platform. Over the last four years, he says he has found a way to make astronomical profits. His method grows his fund 5% every day. Nineteen out of twenty trades he makes are winners. 99.9% of his trading so far has been with a demo account at Forex.com.

"Real Traders Never Believe Me Until I Show Them My Results"
He says that when he talks to real traders, they never believe what he says are his trading results. Then he shows them his results. At that point, he says, many become ready to hand over money in amounts ranging from the “few thousand they have in their pocket,” to the $150,000 in their trust fund, to uncounted $millions under the control of people who already have made a fortune by their time as traders or in their jobs at financial institutions. Total investments to date: $0.00.

He says he has settled on a formula that on average grows his fund 5% very trading day, with no substantial losses to offset those gains. He makes 3-5 trades per day. He is not using any sort of leverage, except in the form of investments to his fund where he will split profits 50-50 with his investors. Until now, he has not accepted investments, because he was in preparation mode. He is expecting $10,000 investment from his friend with the trust fund on Tuesday. He will deposit that money into a broker account and commence generating his fortune.

He Trades Like Rainman Counting Toothpicks
He watches a data stream that comes through the Forex.com trading platform. He says data more than two minutes old is irrelevant. He says a lot of considerations go into spotting the opportunities. When he spots them, he says the window for making the trade is a few seconds.

If what is says is true, he seems like Rainman in the toothpick scene, where a box of 250 toothpicks is dropped to the floor. Rainman, the savant, with a severe problem being normal, does not know how many toothpicks were in the box. He eyeballs the scattered toothpicks and counts them in three groups of 82, totally 246 toothpicks that he has counted. At that point, someone notices there are four toothpicks still in the box, showing Rainman’s count was accurate. Something like that is how my son spots trading opportunities. It’s either that, or it all false information, just in his mind, disconnected from reality.

Until a few days ago, I have assumed it was all just in his mind. He has been talking about getting investment dollars for years, speaking as if the money all is in hand and the profits all in his pocket. Earlier this week, he called to say the first $10,000 investment was on its way, due in two days. That was four days ago… Now he says the money is coming on Tuesday, with hundreds of thousands more after that.

To be continued.

Consistent 5% a day is a joke. It would mean roughly 121740 times increase a year. So after a year he is looking at 1.217B from just 10k. Just two years and he has more money than there is. Please double check the numbers.

@zarathustra000

I think you may be right, but possibly for the wrong reasons ;

If he can do what he thinks he can, that is fine in small quantiies. $ 200 here and there is of no great moment, but when he gets a lot bigger, Brokers will stop taking his bets, and a little further on, those bets in themselves will move the markets and he will have the same problems the likes of Goldman Sachs have - ie “getting the bets on” without it being a huge market mover. So far from being something you can do “In a few seconds”, it could take weeks to become “fully invested” - so to OP - there is certain to be a critical mass when your system becomes unsustaimnable.

Seems then that “small is good” - beware !

Thank you for pointing that out. He says the fund doubles about 10 times per year. He figures trading 4 days per week. No growth on no trade days. I am going to have start with the formulas for compound interest to see what the that implies for average daily earnings as percent compounding. If the numbers he states either are a joke or are inconsistent, I can take at his demo trade results to see what is going on. I gave seen cases where here extrapolates from a single data point while ignoring other data points that go against the point he is communicating. When I talk it through with him, sometimes he is rational, other times his emotions carry him away from reason. He has given me login credentials to see his data, but I have to go through a few steps to get the software running on my rig. For the moment, you only data is what I understand from what he tells me. That will change

Your comment is very helpful to me navigating my way in this world that is new to me.

I want to add that in spite of the obvious errors and other personal challenges between him and his objectives I see enough rationale and substance in his explanations, combined with his tremendous drive, I believe his chances of great success are good. In other words, the kid has a spark and real talent. His success would be fantastic glorious, and redemptive. In my experience, redemption is the most gratitifying thing I have known. Redemption with a fortune to go with it, even a modest fortune, well that would beat anything I have done.

I was thinking the same thing about moving the market, but I have a question about how the trade process works. When he fires a trade by mouse click, he says it executes immediately. I was thinking that might mean that when he makes a trade, the trade is between him and his broker. Is that right? Do his earnings come out of the broker’s fund? Does growing a forex business reach a point where you have to become a broker to keep growing due to the issue you are alerting me to about broker’s cutting you off if you get too big?

I am computing this wrong. At 5% growth per day, I get a doubling every 15 days or so. Only trading days, 4 days a week count, so that is 208 days in a year. It comes to about 24,000 times whatever you had on day 1. 365 days at the same rate is coming up for me at multiplying the day 1 amount by about 51.6 million, or $516 Billion on a day 1 figure of $10K.

I am going to agree with you that is not going to happen. I think he must be estimating his daily average growth either incorrectly or not recognizing that even if he is seeing 5% per day, that is not going to scale all the way to $516billion dollars after 365 trading days.

Another thing is, you said he is going unleveraged: Look at the currency exchange rates swings.

IF he truly stakes only his money (no money from the broker) and assuming that each day he magically choses the best trade, and assuming that he enters that trade with all his money, he will make slighly above 1% a day.

Obviously we could continue the ridiculousness and say that he makes numerous trades and catches 5 swings of about 0,8% (which usually take hours to develop - making it impossible to fit 5 in the same day).

These are borderline assumptions. Something in his whole plan is so very off.

No clue what to think of this. My bet would be that he lies about not wanting leverage. If he does not lie about that, he is clearly very confused, about the possibilities that forex offers.

EDIT. Oh the math I did was simply 1,05^(20*12)*10000, hence differences. I just assumed there are 20 trading days in a month.

I’m concerned that my post will sound both negative and unhelpful. That isn’t my intention, but I can’t find a way to avoid that risk.

Sorry, but this is absolutely ridiculous - especially with no leverage.

For a start, if that were so, he could easily begin with a $100 account (at Oanda, for example, where there’s infinite granularity of position-sizing) and in less than 5 months he’d have considerably more than the $10,000 he proposes to use from his friend’s trust account.

He needs legal advice, too, possibly: it’s comparatively easy, acting on an only informal basis, to find yourself up to your neck in legal securities and investment violations.

The entire scenario is very concerning.

Does he have any friends who trade forex, themselves, who might perhaps be able to identify where the mistaken assumptions are, in all of this?

Going up 5% every day, it must be a joke! Neither the biggest trading can achieve such astrometric numbers? You must put a proof that you tell the truth, upload a capture of the closing of your operation.

1 Like

Everything I have posted so far is based soley on what my son told me.

Please understand, I am plenty skeptical. The reason I came to this system was to get help developing a realistic understanding. I have been getting the exact help I was looking for. I am in no way resisting or disputing what you are explaining.

I am treating this as education for my son, but I needed help to be able to do that.[quote=“jackpot9786, post:9, topic:125838”]
upload a capture of the closing of your operation.
[/quote]

I understand numbers and proof. I do not know what you mean by “closing your operation.”

I will have some real number from a live trading account on Wednesday. I will post them here. and they will what they say.

I am satisfied we are both getting correct numbers with regard what comes from 5% per period over N periods. I remember covering compound interest in school. Putting my son’s situation aside, just considering the math, it is pretty amazing how 5% grows if when it a couple hundred periods to do its work.

I tried looking up the formula, but then quickly retreated to plan B. Open Excel, enter 10,000 in a cell, in the cell underneath, enter a formula of 1.05* the number above. Copy that formula down, and that is my chart:

I could not agree more.

I figured this much out even before coming here for help. He has some rationale for urgency. No reasoning with him on this point but I want you to know I completely understand that anyone capable of producing the growth he says doesn’t need to worry about raising money from investors. Just grow what you have until you have whatever amount you want.

so you decided to beat the hft with home laptop ? go for it bro

One more thing is important. Trading on demo and trading with real money is not the same thing. When you trade with real money you are emotionally involved in to your money. Where there is money there is fear and greed. I think first he should test his strategy with a small capital. If he gets the same result with real money, he can go with big capital.