EUR/CHF - The Pair to Short-Term Range Trade

Commercial Content Analysts
1

Our recent USDCHF position was unfortunately stopped out at a loss through the day’s CHF advance, but the simultaneous EUR rally has actually left the EURCHF uptrend intact. We feel that risk/reward and overall momentum favors continued EUR strength versus the Swiss Franc, and as such we will look to go long the EURCHF on a hold of recent support.


[B]Trading Tip - Our recent USDCHF position was unfortunately stopped out at a loss through the day’s CHF advance, but the simultaneous EUR rally has actually left the EURCHF uptrend intact. We feel that risk/reward and overall momentum favors continued EUR strength versus the Swiss Franc, and as such we will look to go long the EURCHF on a hold of recent support. We aim to establish the position on a hold of 1.6445, hard buy limit 1.6460. Full profit targets shall be seen on a rally above 1.6600, but the trader may consider taking partial profits on reluctance to break through 1.6540.[/B]

[B]Event Risk Euro-zone and Switzerland[/B]
[B]Euro-zone[/B] - Event risk out of the Euro-zone will be light in coming days. On September 21st, PMI figures for the manufacturing and services sector are both anticipated to soften slightly, but unless the index readings are very surprising, the Euro is not likely to show a strong reaction. Next week, both the IFO Business Climate and the GfK Consumer Confidence surveys are scheduled to be released. There is little hope for improvements in either figure, as investors and consumers alike will be increasingly concerned about the prospects for growth in the Euro-zone amidst volatile financial conditions.
[B]Switzerland[/B] - The Swiss franc faces mild event risk over the course of the next week. Both the UBS consumption indicator and the KOF leading indicator could ease back slightly as domestic demand wanes and financial markets remain volatile. However, the figure will likely remain elevated as the Swiss economy shows very few signs of distress.
[B]Data for September 21 - September 27[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Data for September 21 - September 27[/B]
[B]Date[/B]
[B]Euro-zone Economic Data[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Date[/B]
[B]Swiss Economic Data[/B]
Sep 21
Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing (SEP A)

        Sep        25
        UBS Consumption Indicator        (AUG)
           Sep        21
        Euro-zone PMI Services (SEP        A)
        
        Sep        26
        KOF Leading Indicator        (SEP)
           Sep        25
        German        IFO Survey (SEP)
        
        
        
           Sep        26
        German GfK Consumer Confidence        (OCT)