THank you, mihk.
I now put my money where my mouth is, and have gone short on this pair, long term (hopefully).
Cheers.
Hello traders!
To summarise, this is the late-September 2014 update:
-
we are around the 1.27 area;
-
the previous projections are for 1.21- 1.22 to be reached either at/around/by Nov. 2015 OR
-
… by 2019 either as a returning level or as the ultimate target to complete a four-year cycle.
Given that we are more than a year from the first target (shown in the video on page 1 of this thread),
five/six hundred pips may not require as long a period as that; however, we may also bear in mind
that price moves in curves, not in straight lines, and that we may reach the 1.21 - 1.22 area in waves,
possibly ebbing below it before time.
The future is indeed what we project, but may well surprise.
Happy trading.
Got to be happy with this call bro. History has shown that 1.27 is only a support level during an up trend. Doesn’t provide any when in a down trend. 1.22 by November this year, I believe we might be approaching 1.20 and that would be huge.
Thanks, bobbill!
Let us see what the week brings…
Happy trading.
Same my friend. Just put my money where my mouth is and entered short at week open 1.2680. Doing something I don’t normally do and looking at this one trade as long term. Do you think a 70 pip SL is to tight.
Happy pip hunting Bro
Bob
Hi Bob…
Well done!
The daily Average True Range (at 14 periods setting) shows 75.5 on the daily chart, so you are well within
reason to use a 70-pip stop 
…However, given the weight of the event risk for Europe this week, including European CPI, German unemployment, and the ECB rate decision (plus Draghi press conference), you may want to either take
out the stop before these bits of news and put it back a little bit after, or to be prepared being whipsawed out of the trade during those times, and maybe re-entering at a later stage…
Is your stop fixed or trailing?
Going with a fixed. This is at the opposite end to where I normally do business. And as we know the market can and does whip around at the end of the month. But just going with the flow and using the tighter of two levels as I see it on the 6 hour chart. I see the 1.2685 more as a resistance level where as others might see it as a support level. I trade what I see down below so will do the same above. Probably could have waited for a better entry but sometimes you don’t get one at the start of the week.
Got 0.4% riding on this with a target TP at 1.2330. Had a good couple of weeks and been running my mouth so thought why not. Hate to lose money but. Work so hard to get and now breaking the rules by going outside my trading plan. It just looks to good an opportunity to miss.
Well, it could be nearly a year earlier to reach the predicted target (1.22), if the Non-Farm Payrolls release
gave this pair a further push down later today!
Or… the Euro could rally and it could take another year to end the cycle back down to the 1.20 - 1.23
demand zone… In which case, this would be a good opportunity for long-term buying, off multi-year
lows at a strong demand zone…
A killer print for the US Non-Farm Payrolls means that all the (dubious) gains from the EUR/USD post-ECB rate decision (yesterday) are now well and truly incinerated, with the pair solidly back below that 1.23 level (purple line on my screenshot from the 5m chart)…
G’day Pipmehappy. Hope all is well. How the move go? Things should be settling into routine by now I hope. Right in time for the silly season lol
Gonna post my analysis for 2015 in the next couple of mins. Kinda mucked this post up, kids in the bath yadda yadda. Talk soon bro, keen to hear your opinion.
Hello Bob,
you know, I really value your contributions to this website because you really have invested time
in this as a business, on top of your dairy business, and also on top of having a family…
My hat off to you, sir.
I think that this website is made for people like you, Emeraldorc, GP0053, PipNRoll, peterma,
D-Pip, and many others who have a civil way to converse about Forex, and be open to put
their ideas out both for sharing but also, at times, for peer scrutiny - and be prepared to take
criticism from other users.
In terms of EUR/USD, it is a very ‘cheap’ pair in terms of spread, but it will be even ‘cheaper’
if going long is the ‘trade of the year’ from January 2015, retracing part or all of the fall from
1.39… I think that John Kicklighter has been assigned to write up a 2015 forecast/yearly trade
ideas for this pair, looking into 2015… His trade of the year for 2014 was an AUD/NZD, and
it did work for a while but then crash right back down to the current floor, although it could
represent itself as a buy for 2015… What I am saying is that I like to listen to what he has to
say… He is, after all, the Chief Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com, and the successor to none
other than Kathy Lien… Anyway, I make my own analyses, thank you very much, but I still like
to hear what he has to say, just as much as I like to hear what Emeraldorc, GP0053, PipnRoll
and you have to say!
Good day!
Well here’s my weekly chart.
IMO we’re about half way through the CD leg of a simple ABCD pattern. Again IMO translates as it’s not only possible but probable sometime in the next 6 to 18 months the 1.11 level will be tested. Lots of pips ready to be collected on the downside. How the market will get there is however a bit more of a challenge to predict. Or is it.
First to note is the oobviousarea of support the price is entering. To me it’s only logical that a self for-filling prophecy will occur and speculators will start buying in around current prices expecting a bounce (although I do note there is room to move to the 1.20 level so this process might not start straight away). The catalysis might just be a business process not news or fundamental data. After 6 months straight of buying the USD it just might be time to start profit taking. IMO this will start in the next couple of weeks, just to put some cream into the books ready for 2nd quarter end. The third quarter will then become of period of profit taking and re-positioning ready for the price to push down to 1.11.
Translated to the daily chart I see this picture ahead.
So to sum it all up. IMO, This week or next week we’ll see the price hit 1.22 marking the 61.8 expansion of the AB leg. Profit taking will then become the catalysis for a correction where the price will retrace to 1.29 @ the 38.2 retracement in the 3rd quarter before heading south again hopefully for us to be talking about whether the price will brake 1.11 this time next year.
All the best for the season my friend
Bob
Oh yeah, all this is subject to change with out notice, lmao. As far as I’m concerned there is no reason for the price to respect this current “support” level we are heading into. Therefor it could just push straight through and 1.11 here we come.
EUR/USD chart has experienced a strong descending trend during the recent Days that could record the bottom price of 1.22486.as it is obvious in the picture below , price has been stopped from more descending with reaching to the Up Trendline( made of 2 bottom prices) and has formed a bottom price.As it is obvious in the picture below between the top price of 1.25993 and the bottom price of 1.22486, there is an ideal AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 61.8 and 161.8 that with completion of the D point (also formation of Crab pattern in CD wave), there is a potential for ascending of price.RSI indicator is in saturation Sell area and in divergence mode with the price chart in H4 time frame that confirms the price level of 1.22486 and warns changing price direction during the next candles.Generally until the price level of 1.22486 is preserved, price will have the potential for reformation and ascending.
Well, so we are now around this much-anticipated 1.22 level: what next? Only January will tell…
I think we will see 1.20 before a turn around possibly 1.19 area. It is at the end of all things though. So care is advised at this point. Sterling could see 1.52 possibly 1.48 the ultimate bottom.
Panda Express O’Hare Food Court
