EUR/USD retest or fakeout? Some advice is welcome

[pau1p]

Hi guys,

Two weeks ago I started trading fx with a demo account after being trough most of the babypip school. I have some questions about the latest move on the EURUSD.

When we look at the H4 chart, we see the 100SMA dives below the 200SMA. This is a bearish indicator.

Furthermore, on the daily chart, the EURUSD dived below the support line,
and I see a double top reversal pattern if I’m right. Also, the EURUSD broke trough the fibbonaci support line where the double top low bounced.

This is four time a bearish indicator. Yes, it went down, but not as much as I was guessing/hoping for.

Also, we now see a reversal trough the fibbonaci level again. Is this a fakeout? Am I too impatient and should I wait because the first break tends to be false?

Was this a test? Will it bounce down on the resistance which was the support around one week ago and go down again? Or will the uptrend for the EURUSD continue and was this a decent test of all the previous support levels?

I would be happy if some of you guys could give some critique on my analysis or come up with different analysis and a view what would be good bearish or bullish arguments.

Thanks a lot.

[Falstaff]

Ok what you have here is a double top and what may or may not turn out to be a double bottom.

What happens next ?

It could go back up, indicating a resumption of the trend or a period of “Congestion” or it could continue down indicating a reversal or a fakey.

You have identified this and I applaud your analysis at such an early stage in your career, it bodes well for your future endeavours

What to do now ?

Well you can have a guess, based on your analysis and your belief, or feelings, or you could wait for “confimation”.

Sorry to be unnhelpful, but I know no way of making a certainty out of a period of uncertainty.

You are operating a demo account, my advice would be to make a decision and either take a trade or not. You learn little by avoiding trading.

I did type in my own feeling, but deleted it because I don’t want to influence your decision.

Do let us know what you decide and how it works out

[pau1p]

Thanks for the applause and the confirmation of my thoughts! Always happy to hear.

Also, your post makes sense. If it went down or up, I would probably not have posted here (because I then had confirmation of being wrong or right), and as you say now it is too early to judge.

With your confirmation of my doubt, I wait on the sideline a bit more, and I await a clear rebounce on the 38 fibonnacci level or a clear breaktrough. Hopefully I can post some more about my thoughts and being wrong or right in the end

edit: the last lines above suggest that market has to go down first, which is not the cause ofcours… to be continued