EURAUD Bouncing From 18 Year Trendline


This simple yet telling monthly chart of the EURAUD shows that the pair is touching a support line that dates to 1989. This is the 3rd month in the last 5 months that the pair has tested the line and it has held so far.


Aside from trendline support, the EURAUD is at a shelf of support from prior lows, notably the June 2005 and July 2007 lows near 1.5500. If the confluence of trendline support / former lows, then the next level of support is not until the May 2000 low near 1.5000.


From the August high of 1.7450 to the recent low at 1.5491, the EURAUD traced out a 5 wave decline. It is unclear as to whether or not the decline is the beginning of end of a larger move but we can expect at least a retrace near term to at least the former 4th wave at 1.6222 (defended by the 38.2% at 1.6240). The next potential levels of resistance are the 50% and 61.8% at 1.6471 and 1.6702. It appears that the pair has already turned higher and that the rally will accelerate in a 3rd wave higher.