EURCHF: Potential for Double Top


[B]Commentary[/B] - “Measured objectives for the end of the 5 wave rally from the 2000 low are between 171.75 and 175.02.” The risk of a reversal is high as there are 5 waves up from the June 2005 low. An small 5 wave decline would signal that the trend has turned down but the break of a short term support line last week hints at a larger turn already in the works. There is a chance that an ending diagonal ended at 168.94. A decline below 166.51 would confirm a reversal and warrant a bearish bias. Until then, higher prices remain possible.
[B]Strategy [/B]- Sell break of 165.51 against 168.94, target 1 at 161.49

[B]Commentary[/B] - There is no change in our near term outlook for a decline in the EURCHF. The decline from 1.6671 is either a wave 1 down or an A wave in an A-B-C correction. The rally from 1.6462 is either wave 2 or wave B. Either way, we are looking lower for either wave 3 or wave C. If the decline ends at 1.6395 (100% extension of 1.6671-1.6462/1.6604), then the decline is most likely corrective and we would be looking for a new high. If the decline extends to 1.6266 (161.8% ext.), then it is likely that a longer term bearish trend is underway. The bearish structure is intact as long as price is below 1.6671.
[B]Strategy [/B]- Bearish now, against 1.6671, target 1.6395 and 1.6266

[B]Commentary[/B] - The short term pattern remains unclear, so we are sticking with the daily chart for now. The 5 wave rally from .6535 to .6867 along with the 3 wave setback to .6707 indicate that the path of least resistance is up. We expect a strong rally to begin in the weeks ahead along. A new low (below .6707) is possible but .6535 must remain intact in order for the longer term bullish bias to remain favored. Potential support on a decline below .6707 is the 61.8% of .6535-.6867 at .6662.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Remain bullish, against .6535, targeting above .7254