Commentary - We wrote last week that “a projection for the end of wave 5 (and the entire rally from 150.73 for that matter) is where wave 5 would equal wave 1 - at 166.02. Bearish divergence with daily and weekly (and overbought) oscillators warn that the rally is tired. On a larger scale, the COT reports that speculators are extremely long Euros and extremely short Yen - in other words, conditions are ripe for a reversal. In summary, we are looking for signs of a reversal, but this rally could carry to 166.00 before that happens.” Wave 5 appears to have ended at 164.59 as there are 5 waves lower from the top to 161.75. The correction from 161.75 would sport equal legs at 163.13. The 61.8% of 164.59-161.75 is at 163.51 and the 161.8% extension of wave a is at 163.77. These 3 points are where wave 3 down could begin.
Strategy - Getting bearish at 163.13, against 164.59, targeting much lower levlels (TBD)
Commentary - The EURCHF may push to a new high in the weeks ahead to complete an ending diagonal that began April 19th. Connecting the April 19th and June 6th lows and projecting a parallel line from the 5/20 high projects a 5th wave high near 1.6660. Coming under 1.6413 would signal a reversal.
Strategy - None
Commentary - The 5 wave rally from .6535 to .6867 (late4 January-early March) indicates that the larger trend is bullish but the next leg up has not started yet. A larger flat correction appears to be unfolding from .6867. The C leg of the correction would equal the A leg at .6737 and the 61.8% of .6535-.6867 is at .6662. We are looking for a bottom to form in this zone before the EURGBP rallies impressively.
Strategy - None