Euro Alternate Bearish Count

Commentary: We want to present a bearish alternate count today. It is possible that the 1.4281-1.4139 decline is a 5 wave decline with wave 5 truncated (not finishing below wave 3). The subsequent setback to 1.4201 would be wave 2 and wave 3 would be underway now. Under this interpretation of price action, a bearish bias is warranted against 1.4201.

The entire decline may be just an a-b-c correction though, which leaves the EURUSD vulnerable to another high (above 1.4281). Still, we do expect at least a return to 1.3828 (former 4th wave) and possibly 1.3712 (61.8% of 1.3360-1.4281) over the next 3 to 4 weeks. The red arrow shows what price will do under the alternate count presented today. The black arrows show what price is likely to do if the decline from the top is a correction. As mentioned, a return to 1.37/1.38 is expected either way.

Strategy: Flat