As long as the EURUSD and GBPUSD are above 1.3877 and 1.7445, there is potential for a dollar reversal (to the downside). Coming under the mentioned levels would eliminate the bullish counts.
The lower the EURUSD goes, the more I am inclined to label the drop from 1.4871 wave X in a larger correction (or wave B of a flat or triangle). The drop counts better as a 7 wave drop than an impulse (7 waves is corrective….a double zigzag). Also, the two zigzags are nearly equal at this point. Only a drop below 1.3877 eliminates bullish potential.
The USDJPY is still in a range. I favor the downside as long as price is below the trendline from the 110.71 top. However, failure to continue lower through 103.50 does [I]not[/I] instill confidence in the bearish bias.
The GBPUSD drop from 1.8675 counts well as a double zigzag (similar to the EURUSD). The two zigzags would be equal near the 1.7443 low. A triangle and or flat counts is still very much valid from the 1.7443.
Divergence with RSI on the hourly warns of a top. Additional risk to bulls is the possibility that a larger correction is underway from 1.1422 and that the advance from near 1.07 is an X wave.
This is a possible count. Waves 4 and 5 are small relative to waves 1 through 3, but this is the best count I see right now. If the decline from 1.0827 is an impulse, then the USDCAD should roll over from near current price (61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci levels).
The decline from .8524 is either a B wave within a larger correction from .7799 or the beginning of the next bear leg in a long term downtrend. A break of .7799 would eliminate any bullish count.
The advance from .6435 is in 3 waves so a the long term decline may be back underway. It is also possible that a larger correction is underway that will end closer to .72. Action over the next several days should help to clear things up.
[B]Jamie Saettele writes [I]Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead[/I], Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), [I]Daily Technicals [/I]every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.[/B]
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