Commentary: There is little change from yesteday’s commentary. We wrote yesterday that “the decline from 1.4967 has either completed the first leg of a flat correction (3 waves down to this point) or a more bearish structure is unfolding now and the decline from 1.4908 is wave 3 within a 5 wave bearish cycle from the top.”
Both scenarios remain valid at this point but we favor the former corrective scenario. This treats the first 3 wave decline as wave A in a larger A-B-C correction. The more bearish count (in red) treats the decline from the top as a series of 1st and 2nd waves. Both counts are bearish and call for at least a return to 1.4520. The more bearish count would see price get to this level much quicker.
Strategy: Bearish against 1.4858, target 1.4520