EURAUD
EURCAD
EURNZD
Commentary – Subjectively speaking, we would have rather seen a deeper correction in wave 2 from 1.7159. Still, there is enough evidence to suggest that the EURAUD is headed higher in a 3rd wave. We favored a deeper correction because “wave 5 of the 1.5491-1.7159 rally was extended, therefore this decline has the potential to reach the origin of the extended 5th wave, which is at 1.6171. This is just in front of the 61.8% of 1.5491-1.7159 at 1.6128. Potential support prior to that level is the 50% at 1.6325 (11/19 low is at 1.6316).” These mentioned levels are potential support if 1.6488 gives way. The alternate count is shown with the red arrows.
Strategy – Bullish against 1.6488, target TBD
Commentary – There is little reason not to treat the rally from 1.4162 as wave 3 or C in a bull cycle from 1.3285. In fact, risk can be kept to 1.4477. A rally through 1.5029 would support the idea that wave 3 higher was underway. The initial bullish objective is the 100% extension of 1.3285-1.5029/1.4162 at 1.5906.
Strategy – Bullish, against 1.4477, target 1.5890
Commentary – We maintain that wave c of larger wave 2 within a 5 wave bullish cycle is underway towards below 1.8209. A potential terminus for wave 2 is 1.7893. This is where wave c would equal wave a. Near term, we expect price to remain below 1.9167. Do not be fooled by a break of the 200 day SMA (shown on the chart). We do expect that price breaks lower but then reverses higher from the mentioned objective. The alternate count treats the consolidation since the September high as a triangle. Under this scenario, the EURNZD would continue to consolidate within the boundaries of the triangle before a thrust higher.
Strategy – Flat