Euro Commodity Crosses: Bearish Breakout Potential


[B]Commentary[/B] - We wrote last week that “with 5 waves complete at 1.4118, we still think that there is potential for a more significant upward correction before the next leg down begins.” That upward correction ended at 1.4592 to complete a zigzag from 1.4118. The decline from 1.4592 will be in 5 waves following a drop below 1.4396. That sets the stage for additional losses. A break of 1.4233 instills confidence in the bearish bias. A bearish stance is warranted against 1.4592.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Bearish now, against 1.4592, target 1 at 1.4118, target 2 TBD

[B]Commentary [/B]- We maintain that a complex correction is playing out from the 6/12 low at 1.5775. An initial a-b-c correction is wave W and a large triangle may be playing out in the X wave position. As such, expect range trading next week to be followed by a terminal thrust higher to complete the correction from 1.5775. Coming under 1.5775 indicates that the larger bear trend has resumed.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Sell break of 1.5775, against 1.6054, target TBD

[B]Commentary[/B] - The EURNZD was rejected at a former support line, which is now resistance (on chart in green). The wave pattern is not clear but the trend is down as long as price is contained by the resistance line drawn off of the March and May highs (on chart in black). A break of 1.7299 targets the next support level at the December 2005 low of 1.6326.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Sell break of 1.7299, against 1.7843, target 1.6326