Euro Commodity Crosses Bounce - Present Bearish Opportunities


6/15/2007 EURCAD

Charts created using Intellichart - Prepared by Jamie Saettele

[B]Commentary -[/B] The EURCAD downtrend continues as the pair is at its lowest level since October 2006. A pullback is certainly due but the trend is obviously down and the next month or two will likely see a test on the long term support line drawn off of the October 2000, July 2001 and March 2006 lows near 1.3709. Resistance on a pullback is at last week?s high of 1.4391.

[B]Strategy -[/B] None

Charts created using Intellichart - Prepared by Jamie Saettele

[B]Commentary -[/B] We wrote last week-“use a 3 wave correction to one of these levels to align with the downtrend.” That 3 wave correction appears to be unfolding and should end near 1.6045 (38.2% of 1.6481-1.5775). Also, 1.6086 is the former congestion extreme and reinforces resistance. The structure is bearish as long as 1.6212 remains intact. See last week?s analysis for longer term bearish measured objectives.

[B]Strategy -[/B] Remain bearish, against 1.6212, targeting 1.5747 and 1.5229. Adding to position on a pullback towards 1.6045/86

Charts created using Intellichart - Prepared by Jamie Saettele

[B]Commentary -[/B] See last week?s commentary for the longer term outlook. Near term, a correction is unfolding from the 6/11 low at 1.7489. Near 1.8027, which is the 50% of 1.8566-1.7488, should be formidable resistance. This is also a former congestion area (see circle). We are looking for a rally to this level (or close to it) before the bear trend resumes and price drops below 1.7489. The bearish structure is intact as long as price is below 1.8307 (the short term wave structure is on the 240 minute chart above).
[B]Strategy -[/B] Remaining bearish, against 1.8307, targeting 1.7211 and bottom of channel, add to position/align with downtrend at 1.8000