Euro Commodity Crosses Chop Higher


[B]Commentary[/B] - We wrote last week that “the rally from 1.4121 was the first leg of a larger correction. The decline from 1.4592 was the b wave of the correction and a break above 1.4592 would satisfy minimum expectations for the end of the correction. We are looking for a spike through 1.4592 and for a test of the 38.2% of 1.4122-1.4717 before the next leg down begins.” The EURCAD did spike through 1.4592 and traded to 1.4643 before moving lower. A test of 1.4717 remains possible. The pattern is not too clear right now so we are refraining from taking a strong stand.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Flat

[B]Commentary[/B] - We wrote last week that “a flat correction either ended at 1.5917 or a triangle is unfolding from the 7/30 high of 1.6154. Both patterns are bullish and we expect at least one more leg higher. A break above 1.6164 exposes the 61.8% of 1.7033-1.5473 at 1.6437.” The pattern traced out a flat and the EURAUD pushed to 1.6261 this week. The short term pattern is not clear but we would like to show you a longer term chart today. The monthly chart above shows that the EURAUD bounced off of an 18 year trendline (from 1989) last month. Longer term bulls can look to establish positions on any weakness and use last month?s low (1.5474) as risk.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Move to flat (from bullish)

[B]Commentary [/B]- We focused last week on the break of the resisting trendline and mentioned that “our working assumption is that price is headed back to 1.8582.” The EURNZD has rallied and traded to 1.8457 today (close to the 1.8500 objective). 1.8582 should be strong resistance and the intraday structure shows a choppy rally from 1.7720, which is likely to be retraced.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Move to flat (from bullish)

[B]Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist[/B]