Euro Commodity Crosses Continue to Get Hit

  1. EURAUD
  2. EURCAD
  3. EURNZD

EURAUD – The long term trend, as indicated by the nearly 9 year trendline, is down (see last week’s chart). The long term triangle offers the best perspective. Price should come down to test 1.6304 in the E wave of the triangle (triangles have 5 waves A thru E). Although we favor the downside over the longer term, a break below 1.6428 is a 5th wave from 1.7041 would set the stage for a corrective rally attempt. 1.6621 is initial resistance.


EURCAD – We have been bearish EURCAD due to the 9 year trendline and bearish divergence with oscillators on the weekly. The monthly chart presents the most compelling bearish case. This month’s candle will end as a shooting star – a bearish reversal formation that topped out at the 9 year trendline. The next major support level is the January low at 1.5082 with a break lower targeting the August 2006 high at 1.4592. This is obviously a longer term outlook.


EURCAD – With the 5 wave decline from July 2006 to January of this year, the trend is down. The 3 wave correction from 1.8448 has been succeeded by weakness that may be the beginning of a third wave decline. A break below 1.8448 confirms this suspicion and sets the stage for an attack on the 61.8% of 1.6326-2.1191 at 1.8185. The 3/28 high at 1.8853 should offer resistance.


Table
CCI(20) – 21 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 – bullish
0 > – bearish
> 100 – extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) – 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 – bullish
50 > – bearish
> 70 – overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD – MACD[1])
> 0 – bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(21) – 21 day Momentum
> 0 – bullish
0 > - bearish
*measured against past 3 months

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        [B]EURNZD[/B]