EURAUD
EURCAD
EURNZD
Commentary – With a 5 wave rally complete at 1.7159, the EURAUD is declining in a corrective manner. Wave 5 of the 1.5491-1.7159 rally was extended, therefore this decline has the potential to reach the origin of the extended 5th wave, which is at 1.6171. This is just in front of the 61.8% of 1.5491-1.7159 at 1.6128. Potential support prior to that level is the 50% at 1.6325 (11/19 low is at 1.6316). Wave a of an a-b-c correction is complete at 1.6528 and wave b is at 1.7000. Wave c is underway now towards the mentioned support levels.
Strategy – Get bullish in 1.6128/1.6325 zone, against 1.5491, target much higher (longer term trade idea)
Commentary – The EURCAD is similar to the EURAUD in that a setback is due, but the EURCAD rally was even more pronounced. One of the waves (1, 3, 5) is extended (there are 9 waves) in the rally from 1.3285-1.4844 but it is unclear which one. In any case, a setback is due towards at least Fibo support that doesn’t begin until 1.4249. We do expect a correction to this level over the next few weeks. The pattern unfolding appears to be an expanded flat, therefore the minimum for the decline is below 1.4502.
Strategy – Bearish against 1.5029, target TBD
Commentary – We called into question the bullish last week but remained bullish against 1.8556. The pair has yet to come under this level but there is enough evidence to flip to a bearish bias. From the 9/10 high at 2.0190, the EURNZD traced out a 5 wave decline and subsequent 3 wave corrective advance. The next declining leg is underway now and should bring price below 1.8213 and much lower. Wave iii of the next leg down is underway so the decline should accelerate soon. Resistance is at 1.9086 and the bearish bias remains intact as long as price is below 1.9470.
Strategy – Get bearish near 1.9086 (if given the chance), against 1.9470, target below 1.8213