EURAUD
EURCAD
EURNZD
Commentary – The EURAUD remains trapped in the correction that we spoke of last week. “With a 5 wave rally complete at 1.7159, the EURAUD is declining in a corrective manner. Wave 5 of the 1.5491-1.7159 rally was extended, therefore this decline has the potential to reach the origin of the extended 5th wave, which is at 1.6171. This is just in front of the 61.8% of 1.5491-1.7159 at 1.6128. Potential support prior to that level is the 50% at 1.6325 (11/19 low is at 1.6316). Wave a of an a-b-c correction is complete at 1.6528 and wave b is at 1.7000. Wave c is underway now towards the mentioned support levels.”
Strategy – Get bullish in 1.6128/1.6325 zone, against 1.5491, target much higher (longer term trade idea)
Commentary – The EURCAD is similar to the EURAUD in that a setback is due, but the EURCAD rally was even more pronounced. One of the waves (1, 3, 5) is extended (there are 9 waves) in the rally from 1.3285-1.4844 but it is unclear which one. In any case, a setback is due towards at least Fibo support that doesn’t begin until 1.4249. We do expect a correction to this level over the next few weeks. The pattern unfolding appears to be an expanded flat, therefore the minimum for the decline is below 1.4502. Wave iii of c is underway now.
Strategy – Bearish against 1.5029, target TBD
Commentary – We maintain that wave c of larger wave 2 within a 5 wave bullish cycle is underway towards below 1.8209. A potential terminus for wave 2 is 1.7893. This is where wave c would equal wave a. Near term, we expect price to remain below 1.8990. Do not be fooled by a break of the 200 day SMA (shown on the chart). We do expect that price breaks lower but then reverses higher from the mentioned objective.
Strategy – Flat