Euro Commodity Crosses Search for a Bottom


Commentary – The rally from 1.5631-1.6072 is a 5 wave rally, indicating that at leas one more similar rally will occur. In recent weeks, we have showed the long term support line that dates to 1989. As such, the recent turn higher may be a significant one. A small correction is playing out now and fibo support is at the 61.8% of 1.5631-1.6072 at 1.5800. A push through 1.6072 exposes former support (may now be resistance) at 1.6400.
Strategy – Bullish now, against 1.5631, target 1.6390

Commentary – The EURCAD continues to drop as the pair tests a support line that dates to October 2000. Failure to hold here places the March 2006 low of 1.3493 in jeopardy. Unless that line is broken, we advocate a long term bullish stance against 1.3493. We are presenting a long term bullish count on the monthly chart. The rally from the October 2000 low to the February 2004 high is in 5 waves and the decline into the March 2006 low is in 3 waves. The up-down sequence since then may be waves 1 and 2 in the next bull cycle.
Strategy – Long term - bullish against 1.3493, target much higher. Short term - Flat

Commentary – Not surprisingly, the EURNZD looks exactly the same as the EURAUD. The rally from 1.8208 looks impulsive and action since has been a consolidation of that rally. An expanded flat may be unfolding from 1.9161. If so, then price is likely to come under 1.8820 before the next bull leg. We advocated a long term bullish entry two weeks ago at 1.8230, targeting 2.0170 with risk at 1.7029. Risk can be moved to 1.8208 (basically breakeven) now.
Strategy – Bullish, against 1.8208, target 2.0170