- EURAUD
- EURCAD
- EURNZD
EURAUD The rally from 1.6303 to 1.6873 has traced out 5 waves thus we are looking for a turn lower. The confluence of the 38.2% of the bull wave / 1/29 low at 1.6653 is initial support. The high today at 1.6873 is critical to the immediate bearish case but a break above would encounter resistance from the line drawn off of the 6/6/2006 and 10/4/2006 highs at 1.6932 (decreases about 3 pips per day). This is a critical juncture as the pair is sitting right at the 200 day SMA.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
EURCAD The EURCAD may be tracing out a head and shoulders top. The neckline is not until the 1/15 low at 1.5082 but a decline below a short term support line drawn off of the 1/15, 1/26 and 1/31 lows would instill confidence in the bearish case. Daily CCI is extreme at above 100. A decline below 100 signals a reversal. 1.5509 is key resistance.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
EURNZD We wrote last week that the EURNZD has made new lows but divergence with oscillators suggests that this move is exhaustive rather than the beginning of another move lower. The EURNZD has reversed higher, rallying from just below 1.8500 to above 1.9100 today. The pair closed above the upper Bollinger band (daily) yesterday, which often leads to an extension. The next level of resistance former support at the 12/5/2006 low at 1.9283. In the short term, there are 5 waves up from 1.8447, so expect a retracement to test fibo support, which begins at the 38.2% of 1.8447-1.9213 at 1.8924.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
Table
CCI(20) 21 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(21) 21 day Momentum
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
*measured against past 3 months
[B] Weekly Release Schedule
[/B]