EURAUD
EURCAD
EURNZD
Commentary – We still favor a EURAUD deeper correction. We favor a deeper correction because wave 5 of the 1.5491-1.7159 rally was extended, and extended 5ths are often fully retraced. This is just in front of the 61.8% of 1.5491-1.7159 at 1.6128. Potential support prior to that level is the 50% at 1.6325 (11/19 low is at 1.6316). (note, W-X–Y indicates that a larger complex correction is unfolding). An alternate count suggests that larger wave 2 is complete at 1.6476. [B]This is a pair that we have focused on in the Elliott wave forum recently.[/B]
Strategy – Getting bullish near 1.6150
Commentary – Last week, we wrote that “the initial bullish objective is the 100% extension of 1.3285-1.5029/1.4162 at 1.5906.” There is no change to the outlook for much higher prices as price has broken through 1.5029. Near term though, a setback is due and support should be strong in the 1.4666/1.4824 zone. This is former congestion and is defended by the 50% of 1.1462-1.5198 at 1.4678.
Strategy – Bullish, against 1.4477, target 1.5890 (aggressive traders can look to add to the position near mentioned support)
Commentary – A triangle is unfolding from the September high at 2.0056. Triangles unfold in 5 waves (a-b-c-d-e) and wave d is close to complete. Therefore, expect additional consolidation in wave e (down) before a terminal thrust higher in larger wave C completes the entire rally from the July low at 1.7029. Potential support is the 1/17 low at 1.8869. This outlook is in line with the other EUR/commodity currency pairs – that is, expect a drop now that gives way to a big rally.
Strategy – Get bullish near 1.8900, against 1.8510, target is above 2.1122 (July 2006 high)