Commentary - The lower frequency charts show nothing but sky above. However, in the past few weeks, the daily chart has begun to form an attractive ascending wedge. Conversely, these levels seem minor when we pull back to the monthly chart, which happens to be calling up some heavy levels of resistance. A 61.8% fib of the 5/90 to 10/00 bear wave falls just short of 164.50. Adding to the levels prominence, the swing high in 1998 coincided with this same level without the influence of the same Fibonacci sequence.
Strategy - Bearish now, against 165.00, targeting 159.17
Commentary - As Jamie had wrote last week, the completion of the rising 5th wave marked the turn for EURCHF. However, a new downtrend has not yet been confirmed since the break of the rising trend channel was followed up with a retracement back into the trend channel. Optimally, for bearish confirmation we would have liked to see the bounce stall just below the former trendline; but it is a rare occurrence in the FX market that such these things turn out textbook.
Strategy - None
Commentary - Shying away from the complex, flat wave structure that Jamie had written about last week; EURGBP is more simply seen as trading in a range between 0.6850 and 0.6750. For support, we have a reliable fib backed up by the presence of a 100-day and 200-day simple moving average. Should the C node of the corrective wave play out according to Jamie?s predictions, it would be a stress test of the aforementioned net of support levels. On the other hand, C wave could very well fall short of the A wave from 3/14 to 4/3 and facilitate the final touch of support before the pair finally breaks congestion to the upside.
Strategy - Bullish now, against 0.6725, targeting 0.6830