Euro Crosses May Bounce Before Turning Down


EURJPY – The break above 159.61 opened up a move to the top of the EURJPY channel, with a short-term reversal leaving the pair off of the accompanying rising trendline below. A sharp intraday reversal on 4/19 showed that traders are not yet willing to push the pair beyond these levels, leaving scope for a retest of resistance at the 162.44 mark. A further short-term bounce off of the rising trendline seems a distinct possibility, with a reversal to leave the longer term trend intact. A break below 160.50 negates the bullish scenario, with further support seen at the 4/19 low of 159.60.

EURCHF – Price action has been unsurprisingly similar to that of the EURJPY, as the break above significant resistance led to a test of the top of the EURCHF month-long channel. Short-term price objectives remain at the top of the rising channel at 1.6511. As we said last week, “this is where the rally from 1.5035 would equal the 1.4386-1.5862 rally and is a potential reversal point.” With oscillators well into overbought territory, price is likely to show a fairly strong reversal off of a test at 1.6511. A break below a rising trendline at 1.6350 opens the pair to medium-term declines, with congestion at 1.6200 to offer the next meaningful level of resistance.

EURGBP – The EURGBP has been able to hold its medium-term uptrend on a successful reversal at 0.6752, but a newly formed downward-sloping line from above leaves the currency consolidating within a wedge through recent weeks. The pair remains at a critical juncture. On one end, a break below 0.6750 eyes a further move to the 50% Fibonacci of 0.6535-0.6867 at 0.6701 and beyond. To the topside, a successful move above the 4/16 high of 0.6835 leaves the 7/7/2006 high of 0.6961 in play. Through the short term, expect tight ranges to persist in the absence of a move beyond aforementioned support and resistance marks.

CCI(20) – 21 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 – bullish
0 > – bearish
> 100 – extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) – 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 – bullish
50 > – bearish
> 70 – overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD – MACD[1])
> 0 – bullish
0 > - bearish