Euro Crosses Rebound


EURJPY – The EURJPY has rallied off of the 200 day SMA to test a former congestion zone at 155.73/157.31. Resistance is reinforced by the 61.8% of 159.66-150.75 at 156.24. In the short term, the rally from 150.73 is in 3 waves but the third wave has extended and this morning’s decline could be the 4th wave. A rally above 155.75 would make the rally from 150.73 in 5 waves and suggest that the larger trend has turned up. A decline below 153.57 before a rally above 155.75 would favor additional weakness.

EURCHF – We were looking for “a second wave correction to the confluence of the 2/28 high / 61.8% of 1.6295-1.5931 at 1.6150/55 before another leg down.” The pair retraced a bit more, extending to the 1.6200 figure before reversing early this morning. A bearish bias is warranted as long as 1.6198 holds as resistance. Coming under 1.6081 would reinforce the bearish structure.

EURGBP – We wrote on 2/19 that “a 4th wave correction should unfold soon and give way to another thrust higher.” Following a dip to .6690, the pair has rallied to .6845 today. There are 5 waves up from .6536, so we should see a larger correction down in 3 waves to test the 38.2% of .6535-.6845 at .6727. The confluence of the 50% / 2/23 low at .6690 should be very strong support. The long term trend has turned higher though.