Euro Crosses Turn Down - Correction or Trend Change?


EURJPY – We wrote two weeks ago that “the EURJPY may be tracing out an ending diagonal in the 5th wave position of a 5 wave bullish sequence that began at 148.85. If an ending diagonal is unfolding, then we should expect one more high above 159.03, and then a downtrend that will take the pair below 153.66.” The pair rallied to 158.68 before falling to test the confluence of the 38.2% of 137.04-159.83 / 200 day SMA at 150.87. Support is reinforced at today’s low by the trendline drawn off of the 2/27/2006 and 5/17/2006 lows. Still, this bounce is likely a 4th wave correction that will give way to one more decline. Additional support is at the 50% of 137.04-159.83 at 148.46. A rally above 155.73 would turn things bullish.

EURCHF – We wrote 2 weeks ago that “the rally extended to 1.6289 last week and reversed in what may be the beginning of the larger reversal.” This has been the case so far as the pair appears to have traced out 5 waves down from 1.6295 to today’s low at 1.5931. A second wave correction to the confluence of the 2/28 high / 61.8% of 1.6295-1.5931 at 1.6150/55 is possible before another leg down.

EURGBP – We wrote on 2/19 that “a 4th wave correction should unfold soon and give way to another thrust higher.” Following a dip to .6690, the pair has rallied to .6845 today. There are 5 waves up from .6536, so we should see a larger correction down in 3 waves to test the 38.2% of .6535-.6845 at .6727. The confluence of the 50% / 2/23 low at .6690 should be very strong support. The long term trend has turned higher though.