- EURGBP secondary low
- EURCHF remains in multi-month range
- EURCAD approaches former congestion
- EURAUD and EURNZD potential for reversals
[B]Euro / British Pound
Daily Bars[/B]
For now, I am sticking with the EURGBP count in which a correction from the December 2008 top may be complete. The structure of the decline is not especially clear, which is often a sign that the pattern is corrective. If the interpretation of the wave count above is correct, then the EURGBP should continue higher from here.
[B]Euro / Swiss Franc
Weekly Bars[/B]
Since March, the EURCHF has traded in a narrow 400 pip range. Price is nearing the upper end of this range now and a break above would expose the December high 2008 near 1.5900. Although still range bound, price has broken above a line drawn off of the July 2008 and December 2008 highs. The 40 week SMA has turned up in the last few weeks as well.
[B]Euro / Canadian Dollar
Daily Bars[/B]
The series of lower lows and lower highs in the EURCAD since the December 2008 high takes the form of a wedge. The pair is nearing former congestion (circled), which rests below the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 1.6334 at 1.5894. Choppy price action is likely in the former congestion zone but favor the upside until at least the top of the wedge line. Trading through the line would signal a breakout opportunity.
[B]Euro / Australian Dollar
Daily Bars[/B]
The EURAUD is trading at its lowest level since August 2008. Look for signs of a bottom (today’s rally is a good start) as daily RSI is divergent with the new low.
[B]Euro / New Zealand Dollar
Daily Bars[/B]
I have maintained in recent weeks that “the decline from the February high is nearing and end as a 5th wave diagonal. Expectations are for a recovery back to 2.3600 (full retracement of the diagonal). Reversals from diagonals can be sharp.” After several false bottoms, the EURNZD made a fresh 2009 low today before reversing sharply. This may be the beginning of the run back to 2.3600. Aside from wave structure, RSI turning higher from below 30 supports bulls.
[I]Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
[/I][B][I]Please send comments about this report to <[email protected]>[/I][/B]