Euro Crosses: Very Different Paths

-EURGBP larger trend is down
-EURCHF potential support at 1.4900
-EURCAD completing small correction
-EURNZD trades above 200 day SMA

Euro / British Pound[/B]

The decline from .9507 is an impulse and the next big move for the EURGBP is down. I am unsure if .9085 will remain intact though. On very short term charts, the decline from there can be counted as being in 5 waves but with wave 5 truncated. If .9085 is exceeded, then there are potential Fibonacci resistance levels at .9138 and .9224.

Euro / Swiss Franc[/B]

Last week, I wrote that “there is potential for weakness in the EURCHF below 1.5059 and towards 1.49 (61.8% of 1.4575-1.5450 and the 100% extension of the 1.5450-1.5059 decline). A drop to there may present an opportunity to position long against 1.4575 in anticipation of a rally through 1.5886.” There is no change to the outlook. Expect weakness but beware of a reversal near 1.4900.

Euro / Canadian Dollar[/B]

Eventually, the EURCAD is expected to drop below 1.5633 in order to complete an A-B-C decline from 1.7522. Near term, there may be some upside potential as the pair completes a small correction from 1.5775. 1.6368-1.6511 marks the 50%-61.8% of 1.6983, which is in 5 waves. The recent bounce has materialized off of the 200 day SMA (red line).

Euro / Australian Dollar[/B]

The EURAUD has dropped below the 200 day SMA, which brings forth the possibility that a longer term drop is underway. However, there is a pattern that warns of a bottom. Since the October high at 2.1174, it is possible that an A-B-C drop is complete at 1.80 (wave B is a triangle).

Euro / New Zealand Dollar[/B]

Remember, the long term objective is above 2.6171 (all-time high). The reason for this target is that a triangle unfolded from that point. Near term, the EURNZD has declined from the top of a bullish channel. Price is back above the 200 day SMA (in red), which supports bulls. Favor the upside against 2.2413.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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