-EURGBP resistance at .8870
-EURCHF at range center
-EURAUD and EURNZD forming bullish bases
[B]Euro / British Pound[/B]
Near term, there is potential resistance from the 6/5 high at .8870 - which intersects with a potential trendline on Friday. Setbacks may find support at .8700 (former resistance). Longer term implications from the 3 wave decline are bullish.
[B]Euro / Swiss Franc[/B]
Since March, the EURCHF has traded in a narrow 400 pip range. Price is in the middle of this range now. There is no directional bias until price breaks the range. The 200 day SMA is pointed up and is below price at 1.5136 (potential support).
[B]Euro / Canadian Dollar[/B]
The series of lower lows and lower highs in the EURCAD since the December 2008 high takes the form of a wedge. The pair is nearing former congestion (circled), which rests below the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 1.6334 at 1.5894. Choppy price action is likely in the former congestion zone but favor the upside until at least the top of the wedge line. Trading through the line would signal a breakout opportunity.
[B]Euro / Australian Dollar[/B]
“The EURAUD is trading at its lowest level since August 2008. Daily RSI is divergent with the new low.” The EURAUD held its August 10th low, which keeps the reversal scenario valid. Favor the upside.
[B]Euro / New Zealand Dollar[/B]
I have maintained in recent weeks that “the decline from the February high is nearing and end as a 5th wave diagonal. Expectations are for a recovery back to 2.3600 (full retracement of the diagonal). Reversals from diagonals can be sharp.” After several false bottoms, the EURNZD has held above last week’s low to this point. This may be the beginning of a run back to 2.3600.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday). He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to <[email protected]>