On the daily charts the pair is at a critical juncture `having nearly broken the downtrend Bollinger band channel. We will however feel more confident in our upside bias if the daily can close above 1.4770 level suggesting that most of the recent selling pressure has been relieved.
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We continue to maintain our bullish posture on the pair. The EURUSD appears to have carved out a higher double bottom at the 1.4450 level and for the near term that remains the reference point for risk with no visible resistance until the 1.4700 level. Our long term risk on the pair is at 1.4364 and as longs as that level is not breached the bias is to the upside.
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[B]STRATEGY:[/B] Bullish, against 1.4364, target mid 1.50s
[B]USDJPY [/B]remains in a consolidation state as it continues to absorb the more than 1000 point (114.65-104.95) bear wave from the start of the year. Note the narrowing in Bollinger bands indicative of compression in volatility which is likely to resolve itself via a strong break out.
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[B]USDJPY [/B]continues to consolidate in the 107.90-1o5.60 region, but we believe that the pair is poised to break higher and test at least the mid 108s. A 61.8% Fibonacci is at 108.50 and a former congestion area is at 108.30. Although we remain long term bears due to the EW structure on the daily, COT data suggests that a more pronounced rally is possible if not probable.
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[B]GBPUSD [/B]remains in a downtrend contained with the lower Bollinger Band band, but appears to be basing as a possible double bottom at 1.9400 may be taking shape. Nevertheless the price action only appears to be cautiously bullish and we would need to see more momentum to be more confident that a turn has taken place.
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Cable much like the EURUSD appears to be carving out a higher double bottom and our bias tilts to the upside as we anticipate a corrective rally back to the 2.0000 figure before any further weakness reasserts itself at those price levels.
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[B]STRATEGY[/B]: Bullish, against 1.9335, target above 1.9957
Having just recently broken into the Upper Bollinger Band zone, USDCHF has lost a good amount of its upward momentum and is now in danger of reverting back into range. !0925 – the lows of the upside break out candle from two days ago appears to be a critical level here as a break below would negate the near term upside bias.
We are unsure of the pattern unfolding in the USDCHF. “A triangle could be in its early stages right now in the USDCHF. The decline from the 1/22 high at 1.1122 is in 3 waves and the rally from the 2/1 low at 1.0728 is also in 3 waves (to this point).” Another possibility is that an expanded flat is underway, which would require a rally through 1.1122 before being considered complete.
Having traced out a big reversal candle on Friday USDCAD appears to be on the verge of being pulled back into a downtrend. A break of Friday’s low at 9946 opens the way to our short term target of 9755 which would complete the corrective phase of the move
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Although our longer term view remains bearish on the pair, the most recent price action is not constructive to the downside view as USDCAD appears to have made higher low on the hourlies suggesting support near the 9950 level remains difficult to break for now and retest of the upper reaches of the range is possible.
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[B]STRATEGY[/B]: Bearish, against 1.0128, target below .9755
The Aussie has made a powerful break out move in to the Upper Bollinger Band zone and now demonstrates clear upside bias and our strategy to maintain longs remains in place with 9100 as the first level of resistance .
The short term price action confirms the positive structure of the long term charts as the pair looks to be one of the better performers against the greenback amongst the majors. 9000 now becomes short term support and traders should trade with a positive bias against that reference point
[B]STRATEGY[/B]: Long from .8915, against .8874, target TBD
Like the AUDUSD, the NZDUSD trend remains up but the pair is far less definitive than the Aussies forming a symmetrical triangle on the dailies that may resolve either way, but a clear close above the 7900 figure would prove much more supportive to the bullish case.
The 60 minute chart is showing some clear evidence of deceleration in upward momentum confirming the indecision on longer term charts. A break of the 7850 level to the downside exposes the 7800 figure with next support not seen at 7750.