Euro Mixed As European Central Bank Strikes Decidedly Neutral Tone

The euro ended the day on a mixed note once again on Thursday, falling against the US dollar but gaining versus the Britsih pound after the European Central Bank left rates steady at 1 percent, as expected, with ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet stating that rates are “appropriate” as the pace of economic contraction is “clearly slowing.” Trichet also said that the overall mood is “a little better” than before, and that the central bank didn’t discuss whether rates were at their lowest level. Beyond that, there were few new insights on the outlook as the ECB will not publish revised forecasts until their next meeting. According to previous outlooks, the central bank predicts that the Euro-zone economy will contract 4.6 percent this year and 0.3 percent in 2010, while inflation will average about 0.3 percent this year and 1 percent in 2010. That said, with the ECB’s neutral tone suggesting that they will not expand their €60 billion covered bond buying program, and with the BOE adding to their QE program, there appears to be fundamental upside potential for EURGBP. When it comes to EURUSD, though, traders must keep in mind the US dollar’s link with risk trends and be wary of the possibly market-moving release of US non-farm payrolls on Friday.