As I noted last week, “The next challenge for the pair is at the 1.4625 (38.2% of the 2/1 to 2/7 bear wave) and the subsequent, higher level Fibs that are not far above.” Having now cleared those levels the EURUSD appears to be headed for a retest of all time highs and only a close below the 1.4435 would negate the bullish wave. Alternatively, with mind to the broader wedge formation that has defined EURUSD price action since November, the next major leg for EURUSD will be determined in a breakout. Once direction is confirmed, the Fibonaccis will need to be redrawn to account the changing market conditions.
[B] Table of Support and Resistance[/B]
[B]Currency[/B] [B]Fib Support / Resistance[/B] [B]Bias[/B] [B]EUR/USD[/B] 1.4755 – 61.8% retracement of the 2/1 – 2/7 bear wave [B]Bullish[/B] [B]GBP/USD[/B] 1.9335 – Double test of the 11-month low [B]Bullish[/B] [B]USD/JPY[/B] 107.25 – 38.2% retracement of the 1/23 – 2/14 bull move [B]Flat[/B] [B]USD/CHF[/B] 1.1115 – Range high, 61.8% fib of 1/1 – 2/1 downswing [B]Flat[/B] [B]USD/CAD[/B] 1.0130 – 38.2% retracement of the major 2/8/07-11/7/07 bear wave [B]Bullish[/B] [B]AUD/USD[/B] 0.9405 – Full retracement of the recent swing low, multi-decade high [B]Bullish[/B] [B]NZD/USD[/B] 0.8115 – A full retracement for a double touch on a generational high [B]Bullish[/B]
[B]The Fibonacci Personality: [/B]As the great master of Pisa once noted all of life is composed of Fibonacci. I use these golden ratios to understand the movements of the market and profit from their predictions. Let me know what you think of my analysis on the Fibonacci Forum. • Euro Pushes Through Fib Confluence, Retest Of Record Highs May Be Next • Pound Momentum Fading, A Fib Break Needed For Direction • Yen Seeking Direction, Fibs Still In The Way • Bearish Chop Plagues The Franc, Direction Still Eludes The Markets • Canadian Dollar Losing Ground As Fib Congestion Cleared • Little Fib Resistance For Australian Dollar To Block A Move To 0.94 • New Zealand Dollar’s Choppy Advance Draws Closer To Generational Highs
[U][B]
EUR/USD[/B][/U]
[B]Strategy: Bullish against 1.4435, Targeting 1.4900[/B]
As I noted last week, “The next challenge for the pair is at the 1.4625 (38.2% of the 2/1 to 2/7 bear wave) and the subsequent, higher level Fibs that are not far above.” Having now cleared those levels the EURUSD appears to be headed for a retest of all time highs and only a close below the 1.4435 would negate the bullish wave. Alternatively, with mind to the broader wedge formation that has defined EURUSD price action since November, the next major leg for EURUSD will be determined in a breakout. Once direction is confirmed, the Fibonaccis will need to be redrawn to account the changing market conditions.
[U][B]GBP/USD[/B][/U]
[B]Strategy: Bullish against 1.9335, Targeting 2.0030[/B]
The Pound is loosing its direction. While the pair has posted a series of higher lows (currently trying to establish a base around the 1.9500 level), it has more poignantly been unable to muster the necessary momentum needed to make a run for the 38.2% Fib of the 11/9 – 12/22 bear wave settled just above 2.0000. On the other hand, the unit has maintained its 1.9335 swing low; and the longer the pair bases, the stronger the possibility of a strong upswing. All of this considered, I remain long; but I will be keeping a close eye on the 1.9335 level.
[U][B]USD/JPY[/B][/U]
[B]Strategy: Flat, waiting for either a break above the medium-term 38.2% fib at 108.60 or a move below 104.95[/B]
USDJPY continues to churn, but we may be finding medium-term direction is under development. While the pair has built up momentum into a tentative bullish advance, it took only the first major fib retracement in the 38.2% retracement of the 12/27 to 1/23 bear wave to knock the advance off pace. However, with a trend clearly forming under price action, support behind a revived attempt on a serious rally may be at hand. Should we surpass the aforementioned 38.2% Fib, it may be time to change my bias.
[B][U]USD/CHF[/U][/B]
[B]Strategy: Flat, waiting for a confirmed, break above the short-term 38.2% fib at 1.1075[/B]
USDCHF price action is still defined by the Fib formation that had been drawn up from last week. As I noted last week, “USDCHF remains hemmed in by the Fibs formed from the pair’s most recent bear wave – from 12/25 to 2/1.” With the considerable congestion developing in this pair’s long-term lows, I remain on the sidelines until direction can be confirmed. My mark for bullish move would come in a true break through the 50% Fib of the above mentioned wave. The view lower will come with a few more contingencies.
[U][B]USD/CAD[/B][/U]
[B]Strategy: Bullish against 0.9875, Targeting 1.0380[/B]
Having held the 9875 level, USDCAD is starting to reward our patience as the pair breaks a short-term range and begins to move towards our target of 1.0380. With the additional support of a channel low, the Fibonaccis have clearly paid off. If we meet our objective in the coming week, I will immediately take heed of the top of the channel and scan the market for the next, market-worthy Fib sequence.
[U][B]AUD/USD[/B][/U]
[B]Strategy: Bullish against 0.8875, Targeting 0.9405[/B]
Last week we wrote, “Having now cleared the 0.9050 – the last of the major Fib levels in this congestion zone – bullish sentiment underlying the pair could easily target the multi-decade high 0.9405 as an ultimate goal.” With the pair having cleared 0.91, the action looks even more conducive for bulls. My objective remains 0.94 for now, but as we close in on this level, a new sequence will likely need to be considered.
[U][B]NZD/USD[/B][/U]
[B]Strategy: Bullish against 0.7900, Targeting 0.8115[/B]
Unlike the Aussie, the kiwi has not progressed with the same bullish fervor in its move to retest generational highs. Even a break through a rising trendline that has capped swing highs going back to October is not associated with notable momentum or follow through. As I had stated last week, I remain guarded on this bullish advance as congestion has clearly sapped the momentum from a clear market direction. Furthermore, with my target close at hand, it is time to move the stop on this bullish bias up to protect profits.
