[B]Strategy: Bullish against 1.4435, Targeting 1.4900[/B]
As we noted last week, “the [euro] may need to undergo further churn before tackling new highs” and most recent price action indicates that the corrective decline below the 1.4500 level may be over. The next challenge for the EURUSD is at the 1.4625 (38.2% of the 2/1 to 2/7 bear wave) and the subsequent, higher level Fibs that are not far above. If this Fib congestion resistance is overcome the pair will recapture its bullish bias with renewed vigor.
[B]Table of Support and Resistance[/B]
[B]Currency[/B] [B]Fib Support / Resistance[/B] [B]Bias[/B] [B]EUR/USD[/B] 1.4625 – First retracement in tight fib congestion [B]Bullish[/B] [B]GBP/USD[/B] 2.0030 – 38.2% retracement, of the 11/9- 1/22 bear wave [B]Bullish[/B] [B]USD/JPY[/B] 108.15 – 61.8% retracement of the 1/9-1/23 bear move [B]Flat[/B] [B]USD/CHF[/B] 1.1115 – Range high, 61.8% fib of 1/1 – 2/1 downswing [B]Flat[/B] [B]USD/CAD[/B] 1.0130 – 38.2% retracement of the major 2/8/07-11/7/07 bear wave [B]Bullish[/B] [B]AUD/USD[/B] 0.9405 – Full retracement of the recent swing low, multi-decade high [B]Bullish[/B] [B]NZD/USD[/B] 0.8115 – A full retracement for a double touch on a generational high [B]Bullish[/B]
[B]The Fibonacci Personality:[/B]As the great master of Pisa once noted all of life is composed of Fibonacci. I use these golden ratios to understand the movements of the market and profit from their predictions. Let me know what you think my analysis on the [Candlestick forum.](http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/fxforum/showthread.php?t=13956) • Euro Rebound Aims For Fib Congestion
• Fibs Confirm Pound Downtrend, But For How Long?
• Yen Hemmed In By Fibs, Time Sequence Approaching
• Swiss Franc Continues To Define New Fibs, Bearish Chop Remains
• Canadian Dollar Channel Finds Support In Big Retracement
• Little Fib Resistance For Australian Dollar To Block A Move To 0.94
• New Zealand Dollar Makes A Slow But Steady Advance [U][B]
EUR/USD[/B][/U]
[B]Strategy: Bullish against 1.4435, Targeting 1.4900[/B]
As we noted last week, “the pair may need to undergo further churn before tackling new highs” and most recent price action indicates that the corrective decline below the 1.4500 level may be over. The next challenge for the pair is at the 1.4625 (38.2% of the 2/1 to 2/7 bear wave) and the subsequent, higher level Fibs that are not far above. If this Fib congestion resistance is overcome the EURUSD will recapture its bullish bias with renewed vigor.
[U][B]
GBP/USD[/B][/U]
[B]Strategy: Bullish against 1.9335, Targeting 2.0030[/B]
Much like the EURUSD the pound appears to have carved out a clear double bottom and the pair once again may look to test the key 2.0000 level (more precisely the 2.0030 38.2% Fib of the major bear wave from 11/9 to 1/22). Regardless of whether this target is met though, the psychological figure will be key to establishing the next major GBPUSD trend. Retaking the aforementioned 38.2% retracement level would officially conclude a trend of lower swing highs. Until this major signal on direction is confirmed though, we remain bullish targeting that retest as our fake profit level.
[U][B]
USD/JPY[/B][/U]
[B]Strategy: Flat, waiting for either a break above the short-term 61.8% fib at 108.15 or a move below 104.95[/B]
USDJPY continues to range between 105.75 and108.15 as it forms a bear flag of the most recent wave down from 1/10 to 1/25. We are sidelined as the price action remains compressed with Fib levels too close together to provide any clear trading levels. However, with a Fib time sequence approaching, breakout potential is growing. On the other hand, even if the pair does put in for a breakout, momentum on the move may not carry. With a spike low just below 105 and the past months’ swing highs steadily falling, there is clearly a broader range containing price action.
[U][B]
USD/CHF[/B][/U]
[B]Strategy: Flat, waiting for a confirmed, break above the short-term 38.2% fib at 1.1075[/B]
Like USDJPY, USDCHF remains hemmed in by the Fibs formed from the pair’s most recent bear wave – from 12/25 to 2/1. Only a break higher and recapture of the 50% Fib of that same wave at 1.1181 would turn us unabashedly bullish; but for now I remain neutral on price action.
[U][B]
USD/CAD[/B][/U]
[B]Strategy: Bullish against 0.9875, Targeting 1.0380[/B]
My confidence in the bullish case for USDCAD is waning by the minute, but as long as the pair holds the 0.9875 level - which is defined by both the 38.2% retrace of the most recent rally from 11/7 to 1/22 and a distinct rising trendline, the argument for a long remains valid. At the same time, bull runs continue to hit their head on resistance spotted around 1.0100 which is a Fib confluence of the 50% retracement of the 1/22 to 1/30 down leg and more importantly the 38.2% Fib of the 2/8/07 to 11/8 downtrend. The pair is in clear consolidation with bulls and bear battling it out at the key Fib support levels.
[U][B]
AUD/USD[/B][/U]
[B]Strategy: Bullish against 0.8875, Targeting 0.9405[/B]
Last week we wrote, “The price action in the Australian dollar remains constructive to the upside especially now that the pair has recaptured the 38.2% level of the large 11/7 to 1/22 bear wave; and appears intent on testing the next immediate retracement level just above 0.8950.” Having now cleared the 0.9050 – the last of the major Fibo in this congestion zone – bullish sentiment underlying the pair could easily target the multi-decade high 0.9405 as an ultimate goal.
[U][B]
NZD/USD[/B][/U]
[B]Strategy: Bullish against 0.7780, Targeting 0.8115[/B]
The kiwi, having long ago cleared the 61.8% resistance level of the massive 7/24 to 8/17 bear wave from last summer, is in a consolidation pattern with an upward bias. As such I remain bullish but guarded as the pair has failed to clear the 0.8000 on more than one occasion. Therefore, I have tightened my stop to 7780 and monitor momentum with great interest.
