Commentary: We have been stating that “bigger picture, we expect at least a return to 1.3828 (former 4th wave) and possibly 1.3712 (61.8% of 1.3360-1.4281) over the next 3 to 4 weeks.” Stubbornly though, we have held on to a bullish bias and been proven wrong twice in the last two trading days.
The short term count has not been especially clear. The latest decline from 1.4157 is an impulse but could be wave c in an a-b-c decline from 1.4281. Another possibility is that the decline from 1.4157 is the beginning of a 3rd wave lower. If this is the case, then the decline could accelerate, and soon. With this in mind, a cautious bearish bias is warranted against 1.4157. Short term resistance is at 1.4060. We are showing the bearish count today.