Euro Stalls at 61.8%

The EURUSD broke through the short term resistance line and closed above the 20 day SMA yesterday. Support should be strong at the 5/14 high of 1.3558 but coming under here would be a sign that the bigger turn lower is underway.

We continue to look for the bigger turn due to the sentiment extreme (as evidenced by COT). The rally from 1.3462 has stalled at the 61.8% of 1.3680-1.3462 at 1.3597 (the high is at 1.3609) and hourly RSI has rolled over from above 70, suggesting that we will see at least a pullback. The long candle on the 240 minute chart (see below) also warns of additional bearish price action.