Euro Technical Outlook

The EURUSD rally from 1.2886 has exceeded the level at which it would be equal to the 1.2454-1.3742 rally (1.4174), which puts 1.4723 at risk from a probabilistic standpoint. The alternate, in which a larger complex correction will end above 1.4723, does remain valid. Overbought and divergent RSI favors a top before 1.4723. Coming under 1.3792 would make it highly likely that a top is in place but if sufficient evidence arises that a top is in place prior to that point, then I’ll discuss as much here. Until then, it is best to wait for clarity.